EU develops trade strategy in case of Trump's re-election

EU officials believe that the carrot-and-stick approach will be the best response to Trump's promise to impose minimum tariffs of 10%, which could reduce EU exports by €150 billion per year.

Negotiators plan to approach Trump's team in the event of his victory in the November elections, even before he takes office, to discuss the possibility of increasing EU purchases of American goods.

If negotiations to improve trade are unsuccessful and Trump imposes higher tariffs, the European Commission's trade department is preparing lists of imported goods that could be subjected to tariffs of 50% or more.

"We have to show we are a partner for the US, not a problem. We will look for deals, but we are ready to defend ourselves if it comes to it. We won’t be guided by fear," said a senior EU official.

Trump's first term from 2017 to 2021 was challenging for the EU, which has a significant trade surplus with the US.

After Trump imposed tariffs in 2018 on €6.4 billion worth of EU steel and aluminum imports for national security reasons, the EU responded with balancing tariffs worth €2.8 billion.

Brussels politicians hope that Trump will not want to ignite inflation when voters are concerned about the cost of living. But a senior official said that they are better prepared this time, no matter what happens.

US election

In November this year, the US will hold presidential elections. Until recently, the main candidates were President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.

However, Biden recently withdrew his candidacy and proposed that the Democrats nominate US Vice President Kamala Harris instead. The Democratic Party will choose its presidential candidate by August 7 through online voting.

Notably, according to the latest poll, Harris is leading Trump.