Estonian intelligence predicts when Russia will feel effects of strikes on its depots
Photo: artillery shells (Getty Images)
The destruction of military depots in Russia by Ukrainian forces is likely to have an impact within two to three weeks. The Russian army will be forced to prioritize its actions on the front lines, states Lieutenant Colonel Janek Kesselmann, Deputy Head of the Estonian Defence Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate.
According to him, the intensity of shelling by Russian forces on the front has decreased from 226 strikes per day last week to 155 strikes per day this week.
Kesselmann noted that this is not yet the result of last week's depot destructions, as "the effect of this event will likely come in two to three weeks."
"Since the Russian Federation lost a significant amount of ammunition intended for the front, it will probably have to prioritize its actions in the coming months," he said.
The Estonian intelligence officer highlighted that this raises the question of whether Russian forces have enough resources to push Ukrainian units that entered Russia's Kursk region back.
He also added that this week Russia continued its slow advance in the Pokrovsk direction, reaching a position that could enable the encirclement of the settlement of Selydove.
"If this settlement is captured by the enemy, the supply lines to Pokrovsk and Kurakhove will likely be disrupted," Kesselmann noted.
Strikes on Russian depots
On the night of September 21, weapons depots of Russia in Krasnodar Krai and the Tver region were attacked.
As reported by RBC-Ukraine sources, the attack on the depot in Toropets, Tver region, was a special operation by Ukrainian defenders, involving the Security Service of Ukraine, Defense Intelligence, and Special Operations Forces.
It has been confirmed that the strike hit a rocket artillery depot where the Russian forces stored missiles for Iskander operational-tactical complexes, KN23 ballistic missiles, Tochka-U tactical missile systems, KABs (guided aerial bombs), S-300s, and artillery ammunition.
The strike on the missile depot in Toropets is a significant achievement for Ukraine, as there are only 13 such depots in Russia.
Estonian intelligence believes that the strike on the Toropets depot has resulted in Russia losing ammunition for 2-3 months.
