Could climate change drive Ukrainians to relocate? Ukrainian climatologist weighs in
Could Ukrainians become climate refugees due to global changes? (photo: Getty Images)
Climate change is catastrophic for many, creating conditions unfit for life. This drives more people to leave their homes.
Could Ukrainians become climate refugees due to global changes? In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Vira Balabukh, PhD in Geography, Head of the Department of Applied Meteorology and Climatology at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, addressed this question.
Are climate refugees a threat to Ukraine?
"African countries have experienced severe droughts over the past decades, forcing people to relocate from their homes. In many other regions, major floods and intense precipitation occur, leading to population emigration. People who are forced to leave their place of residence due to adverse weather conditions are called climate refugees," Balabukh said.
Most often, people from drought-affected villages move to the nearest city. Very rarely do they move to other countries. This creates significant social pressure and challenges in cities. Usually, when conditions improve in their native areas, people return home.
"Comparing the changes and consequences occurring in other regions, the changes in Ukraine, although significant, are not catastrophic, because we live in temperate latitudes and are located quite far from the ocean, which affects the coast through hurricanes, typhoons, and rising sea levels. Ukraine is an attractive territory in terms of climatic conditions. There is a likelihood that a significant portion of those who cannot live in their own territory will want to relocate to us," the scientist added.
Could Ukrainians themselves become climate refugees?
Balabukh noted that since climate change in Ukraine is not catastrophic, living conditions will remain acceptable. Still, some Ukrainians from certain regions may consider relocating.
"The changes happening here are quite uneven. Temperature is rising the most in the northeast, specifically in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. Over the last 30 years, it has warmed by 1.5 degrees and more here, while in the rest of the country these changes amount to 1–1.2 degrees," the climatologist said.
Temperatures have risen less in southern regions, but that area remains the hottest. If droughts increase in some years and no countermeasures are taken, the region could lose its position in agriculture. Businesses would require large investments.
"Locals will likely want to relocate to other territories. In this regard, Polissia is quite attractive to us. Recently, an oil-grain belt has begun to form there. If in southern Ukraine conditions for growing many crops become unfavorable, then Polissia, which was considered excessively wet, now has enough moisture and warmth to grow many crops," Balabukh added.
In the same interview, Balabukh stated that global warming could open new opportunities for Ukraine’s agriculture. The country may grow warm-weather crops that previously could not thrive here.
