China’s secret weapon in trade war with Trump is pork

China, the world’s largest pork consumer, has long prioritized securing a stable supply of the meat. Despite consuming over 57 million metric tons annually, Beijing imposed a 10% tariff on US pork as part of its retaliation against Trump’s trade policies. Analysts believe this move is designed to economically weaken Trump’s voter base in key agricultural states while keeping domestic pork prices stable.

"The $1.1 billion worth of pork that China imported from the US last year accounted for only 7% of its total pork imports and just 0.1% of total domestic supply," experts note. To reduce reliance on American products, China has diversified its import sources, favoring Brazil, Spain, and Russia, while boosting domestic production with massive industrial pig farms known as "hog hotels."

Trade war escalates as economic risks grow

While China has largely shielded itself from major disruptions in pork supply, the broader trade war could have longer-term consequences. Tariffs on American soybeans - critical for animal feed - could drive up costs, indirectly affecting pork prices. However, experts say this could benefit China’s agricultural sector.

"Rising prices from tariffs are good news for China’s domestic pig farming companies," said Even Pay, an agricultural policy analyst at Trivium China. With China’s economy struggling to meet its 5% growth target, moderate inflation in the pork market could help strengthen local producers.

Meanwhile, tensions between the two largest economies continue to rise. Trump recently confirmed that Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Washington for high-level talks, signaling a potential attempt at de-escalation.

However, the OECD warns that ongoing trade conflicts could significantly slow global economic growth in the coming years.