China has better access to Russia's critical minerals than US - Expert
Illustrative photo: Chinese companies have significant advantages in extracting critical minerals in Russia (World Economic Forum)
China has much more potential than the US to access Russia's Far Eastern critical mineral deposits. China already possesses the technologies to develop these deposits and is geographically closer to them than the US, according to Mykhailo Honchar, President of the Analytical Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI.
Remote deposits logistics
"Russian deposits are very convenient for China. They are located in Eastern Siberia and Yakutia. There is no infrastructure there; it needs to be created. China can easily implement powerful infrastructure projects in this part of Russia, in Eastern Siberia. Only China is capable of doing this," said the expert.
Mykhailo Honchar noted that the most promising rare earth metal deposit in Russia is "Tomtor," located in Yakutia. The deposit is over 2,000 km from Yakutsk and 400 km from the Laptev Sea coast.
The significant distance from cities, ports, and any infrastructure makes developing this deposit challenging. The expert pointed out that Russia is conducting minimal extraction, but transporting the ore follows a very complicated logistical route.
"They slowly transport the ore by river to the Arctic Ocean, then ship it to the port of Murmansk, and later transport it by rail to Krasnokamensk (in the Trans-Baikal region of Russia), where there is a plant capable of processing uranium and rare earth ores. This is a colossal logistical chain," explained Mykhailo Honchar.
Technological complexity of extraction
In late February, Russia offered the USA the development of its critical mineral deposits, as opposed to Ukrainian ones. "The Russians told the Americans: 'We have much more of this stuff (critical minerals) than Ukraine.' This is true, but they don't know how to develop it," the expert noted.
According to him, an important factor in this matter is the technology that allows for geological exploration and extraction of ore minerals in the difficult climatic conditions of permafrost.
"The Russians lack serious capabilities to develop this in the Arctic zone. The Americans can’t do anything there either, because they don’t have the necessary technologies for working in that zone, where there is no proper infrastructure," commented Mykhailo Honchar.
He added that Russia does not have a highly developed industry for extracting and processing critical raw materials (rare earth metals), except for nickel, uranium, and a few other elements.
"The Russians won’t be able to master this themselves, because their industry for developing deposits and producing rare earth metals is poorly developed," said Mykhailo Honchar, adding that meanwhile, the mining and processing industry in China is highly developed.
China's claims to Russian resources
The expert emphasized that China will make every effort to maintain its leadership role in the extraction and production of rare earth metals, and will therefore aim to control Russian deposits.
"China will fight to keep control of Russian deposits in the hands of Chinese companies," said Mykhailo Honchar.
In his view, China currently has much more leverage over Russia than the United States, as trade between Russia and China is far greater than that with the US.
"Russia does not have the significant funds or infrastructure to develop such deposits; their only option is to agree to China's proposals... Without China, they won’t be able to do anything, and they will inevitably have to bow to China," he said, adding that China has already presented proposals to Russia for developing the Far Eastern deposits.
Sudden interest in critical minerals
In mid-October 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine possesses critical minerals worth trillions of dollars. He proposed agreements with the US and the EU for joint protection and investment in the extraction of these resources. This proposal piqued the interest of the administration of US President Donald Trump, who had frequently spoken about the US's dependence on China for critical raw materials.
On February 12, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought a draft agreement to Ukraine regarding access to Ukrainian minerals, totaling $500 billion. Ukraine rejected the proposal due to the absence of security guarantees for the country.
The US then proposed a new version of the agreement, once again mentioning the $500 billion. Zelenskyy refused to recognize such a debt amount.
On February 24, Vladimir Putin proposed cooperation with the US in the field of rare earth metal extraction in Russia.
On February 26, a draft agreement between Ukraine and the US on natural resources was published, which suggested the creation of a Fund where Ukraine would allocate 50% of the income from the “future monetization” of its state mineral resources (including income from oil and gas extraction). The fund was expected to invest in Ukraine "at least once a year." However, the agreement lacked security guarantees from the US.
After a dispute between Zelenskyy and Trump in the White House on February 28 and the restoration of relations through negotiations in Saudi Arabia on March 11, the Ukrainian side announced it was ready to sign the agreement. On March 14, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna announced that the work on the text of the Agreement was completed.
According to the State Service of Geology and Subsoil of Ukraine, the country’s lithium reserves account for about one-third of Europe’s proven reserves (about 3% of global reserves). Ukraine is also one of the top five countries by graphite reserves and ranks among the top ten for titanium reserves. In uranium ore deposits, Ukraine ranks first in Europe and 11th globally.
Currently, China extracts more than 60% of all rare earth elements in the world and processes 87% of the corresponding raw materials. The US lags significantly behind China in this regard and buys much of its critical raw materials from China.
