Ceasefire in Kostiantynivka could benefit Russia: ISW reveals Kremlin's plan
Photo: Russian military personnel (Getty Images)
The Kremlin is pushing for a ceasefire in Kostiantynivka under the pretext of evacuating civilians. However, a pause in the fighting could help Russian forces prepare an offensive, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On November 13, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov once again described Russian President Vladimir Putin's initiative to organize a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka as important. The Russian leader made the proposal on November 12 while addressing US presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Peskov said the initiative should be a continuation of the humanitarian efforts recently carried out in the occupied town of Oleshky. He also called on US and European officials to pressure Ukraine into agreeing to a local ceasefire in Kostiantynivka. According to the Russian side's proposal, this would allow civilians to be evacuated from the city.
Both Peskov and Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov claimed that Witkoff and Kushner had actively supported the proposal.
At the same time, ISW emphasizes that a ceasefire in Kostiantynivka modeled on the one in Oleshky is impossible due to the different situations on the battlefield. Russian forces do not control Kostiantynivka, whereas Oleshky is under full Russian occupation.
Analysts note that since September 1, 2026, they have identified signs of at least 41 Ukrainian positions in Kostiantynivka and its outskirts. This contradicts Putin's statement on July 3, as well as months of claims by Russian officials that they had supposedly established control over the city.
The situation in Oleshky is different. The settlement is located approximately 3.7 km from the front line and is fully controlled by Russian forces. During the humanitarian operation there, Ukrainian and Russian forces were supposed to agree to a halt in strikes across the Dnipro River, which separates their positions.
Why the Kremlin wants a ceasefire in Kostiantynivka
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the Kremlin may have a different goal than the stated evacuation of civilians. Analysts suggest that Russia wants to use a temporary ceasefire to build up its military forces in the Kostiantynivka area.
Such a buildup could create conditions for a further Russian offensive to the north, toward Druzhkivka.
The city is one of the most heavily fortified settlements along Ukraine's defensive line, known as the Fortress Belt. Therefore, according to ISW, a temporary ceasefire could help Russia prepare for offensive operations in this section of the front.
What preceded this
The idea of a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka emerged after a similar operation was carried out in the occupied city of Oleshky, Kherson region, in late October. From October 27 to November 1, a ceasefire was in effect there, making it possible to organize the evacuation of local residents.
A humanitarian convoy evacuated more than 750 people: some of them headed to Russia, while the majority returned to Ukrainian-controlled territory. US First Lady Melania Trump also took part in the operation.
On November 12, Vladimir Putin proposed carrying out a similar humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka. The Kremlin called on Ukraine to agree to a local ceasefire to evacuate civilians.
At the same time, the Ukrainian side warned that Russia could use the pause to rotate its troops and strengthen its positions.
