Bloomberg evaluates Iran's capacity to produce Shahed drones
Photo: Shahed attack drone (Getty Images)
The US and Israel airstrikes have limited Iran's ability to produce Shahed-136 attack drones. However, Tehran still has stockpiles of these UAVs and the capability to manufacture new ones, Bloomberg reports.
The agency estimates that since the escalation of the Middle East conflict, Iran has already launched over 2,100 Shahed drones.
Although these drones are slow and relatively easy for air defense systems to detect, their mass use creates another problem—depleting stocks of expensive interceptor missiles.
The US and Israel have prioritized strikes on drone production facilities. According to a senior European official, these attacks primarily disrupted Iran’s production organization.
Factors affecting Iran's ability to produce drones
A source familiar with Iran’s drone production noted that the Shahed design is relatively simple. It mainly consists of a fiberglass body with an engine, a basic guidance system, and explosives. Therefore, it can be manufactured, for example, at a speedboat repair facility.
Sid Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, noted that even under bombing, production of such drones can continue.
"Since the Houthis have produced UAVs under bombardment, one would think the Iranians can — albeit not at the same rates," he added.
RUSI expert Bob Tallast also said that Iran likely prepared its production infrastructure in advance for potential attacks, placing manufacturing facilities underground.
According to the analyst, even producing around 20 drones for a single strike is enough to effectively hit targets.
The situation with missiles
The situation with ballistic missiles is more complicated. Before the war, Iran had an arsenal of approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles and has already used about 700. Many of these, along with launchers, were destroyed on the ground.
Experts note that ballistic missile production requires much more complex technology, so it has likely almost halted.
Iran has supplied Russia not only with Shahed drone components but also with fully assembled attack drones. Moscow and Tehran’s military cooperation in kamikaze drone supply began even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated last year that Iran explained the transfer of thousands of Shaheds in 2022 as orders from Russia placed before the start of the full-scale war.
Ukrainian authorities have also documented the involvement of Iranian military personnel in this cooperation. According to the investigation, in 2022–2023, the head of the IRGC Aerospace Force, General Abdollah Mehrabi, organized the supply of large batches of Iranian MD 550 engines for drones to Russia.
