Belarus preparing for war? Opposition identifies 8 warning signs
Photo: Belarusian military personnel during exercises (Getty Images)
A new report prepared for Ukraine by the Belarusian opposition highlights a number of developments that, in its view, could indicate a changing role for Minsk in the war, according to the Belarusian United Transitional Cabinet.
The document was sent to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha by Pavel Latushka, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet and leader of the National Anti-Crisis Management.
The 30-page report outlines eight factors that, according to its authors, may point to Belarus stepping up preparations for a possible military conflict.
1. Changes to military legislation
The report notes that following constitutional amendments, Belarus lost its status as a neutral and non-nuclear state. At the same time, a military doctrine adopted in 2024 allows for preemptive strikes in the event of a "direct threat" and permits the deployment of Belarusian forces outside the country.
2. Expansion of military capabilities
According to the report, the number of contract soldiers has increased by about 50% since 2022, the mobilization reserve is estimated at 289,000 personnel, and a Southern Operational Command is being formed along the border with Ukraine.
3. Putting the economy onto a wartime footing
The authors claim that Belarus' defense spending has increased fivefold over the past four years. They also point to growing integration between the Belarusian and Russian defense industries and the delivery of thousands of new military systems.
"More than 4,000 new pieces of military equipment were commissioned in 2024 alone," the report states.
4. Deepening military cooperation with Russia
Among the indicators cited are the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus, as well as the training of Belarusian troops by instructors from the Wagner Group.
5. Militarization of society
The report highlights the construction of defensive fortifications along the borders with Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, the modernization of infrastructure for military needs, and the expansion of military training programs for young people.
Mandatory military training has been introduced in schools, while children are being enrolled in military-patriotic camps.
6. Preparing the civilian sector for wartime conditions
The report mentions new guidelines for the healthcare system on operating during wartime, inspections of around 5,000 bomb shelters in Minsk, and regular testing of public alert systems.
It also mentions the procurement of body armor for local militia units.
7. Stockpiling strategic resources
According to the authors, Belarus has increased mandatory fuel reserves to a 30-day supply, expanded the list of civilian vehicles that can be mobilized, and authorized the formation of military transport convoys using vehicles from private enterprises.
8. Continuous military exercises
The report says Belarus continues to conduct large-scale military drills in 2026. The authors believe these exercises may be used to test mobilization mechanisms and maintain a high level of readiness among security forces.
The National Anti-Crisis Management organization stressed that the report submitted to Ukraine contains not only a list of observed trends but also recommendations aimed at preventing a possible escalation and curbing Belarus' further militarization.
Amid concerns over Belarus' deeper involvement in the war, Ukraine has been strengthening its northern border.
As reported by The Guardian, Ukrainian forces have recorded increased activity by Russian reconnaissance drones operating from Belarusian territory, as well as the construction of new infrastructure near the border.
