Baltic states next on Putin's list after Ukraine? Is Russia ready to war with the West

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has occasionally expressed regret over the "lost times." In 2005, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the collapse of the USSR "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century." Twenty years have passed since then, and the Kremlin’s attitudes haven't just remained the same, they've become much more radical.

The war in Ukraine, in Moscow's plans, was meant to be only a part of a large-scale campaign to "resurrect" the Soviet Union. For the Kremlin, this is about regaining the sphere of influence it held during the USSR years. That's why the Russian authorities react so sharply to the aspirations of neighboring countries to join European political and, especially, military alliances.

Since 1991, after the USSR collapsed, Russia has tried in various ways to control the former Soviet republics. Some were "subjugated" economically, others influenced via political lobbying. And those who resisted suddenly found themselves facing military conflicts on their own territory. Over 34 years, Moscow has initiated dozens of different regional clashes, some of which turned into grueling wars.

Still, Russia long avoided open military conflicts, preferring to create levers of influence in the former Soviet republics through hybrid methods. In 2014, Ukraine suffered essentially the same fate as other neighbors of Moscow at different times - Russia launched a proxy war in the Donbas and occupied Crimea. After eight years of war and seeing no radical reaction from the West, Putin gave the order for a full-scale invasion.

A few years later, the Kremlin realized that although NATO views them as "enemy number one," it won't risk a direct confrontation out of fear of nuclear escalation. The same security architecture discussed at every NATO summit has started to crack, and Russia sees that clearly. At some point, European intelligence agencies, military officials, and political analysts began to agree on one thing: a conflict between Russia and NATO is inevitable. And it will most likely begin in the Baltic states, as they were also once part of the USSR and visibly irritate Moscow with their open hostility.

Russia's global preparation

In June 2025, in London, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Russia would be ready for war against the Alliance in just five years. His keynote speech included many so-called unpopular claims - about Moscow ramping up its capabilities, and about NATO's military machine proving less efficient than expected.

"Russia produces in three months what the whole of NATO produces in a year. And its defence industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles this year alone. Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years," said Mark Rutte.

How Russia, under unprecedented sanctions, can astonish the world with such productivity is a topic for long debate. There are many reasons, the main one being Russia's immense reserves of resilience. Sanctions failed to be the "breakthrough fist" many hoped for; Russia quickly restructured its economy around the military-industrial complex. And the measures themselves are hardly exhaustive - the shadow Russian oil fleet still operates.

Mark Rutte (photo: Getty Images)

Moreover, the Kremlin has found allies. One is Iran, a record-holder in surviving sanctions, along with North Korea and China. The latter is the most important and powerful. While NATO was still debating how many air defense units to send to Ukraine, Russia was buying ballistic missiles from North Korea and drones from China. Moscow's allies act more decisively because they operate in the shadows, while the EU and NATO are still entangled in bureaucracy and Viktor Orbán.

Although NATO's economy is 25 times larger than Russia's, Russia now produces four times more weapons than all the Alliance countries combined. Mark Rutte emphasized this in his London speech.

"At the moment, even whilst the war against Ukraine is continuing, they are still able to slightly increase stockpiles. But that's debatable, I mean, that's a statement of fact," the NATO Secretary General noted.

Talks about Russia preparing for a broader war against the West didn't start in June 2025. Mark Rutte rather highlighted it, explaining why the Alliance needs to restructure and ramp up military production. Meanwhile, intelligence agencies, including Ukraine's, have been warning their partners for years that war is inevitable.

"According to Russian officials, the current system of international and European security will degrade by 2030, and between 2030 and 2035 a series of military conflicts will erupt in Europe, particularly in Poland, the Baltic states, Scandinavia, and the Arctic. In the European theater alone, Russian military analysts foresee more than 10 possible armed conflicts and regional wars," Ukraine's Defense Intelligence told RBC-Ukraine.

Thus, according to Ukraine's intelligence, Russia's military-political leadership is already planning how much funding they'll need and which strategic European directions they should target.

Russia is already looking ahead. In 2024, the Kremlin launched a military reform to form a powerful military grouping on the western strategic front by 2029. This involves creating two military districts, Leningrad and Moscow, with new army corps and divisions. Simultaneously, Moscow is prioritizing the production of high-precision weapons and UAVs, while also spending vast sums on them.

"Priority military funding for $130–140 billion per year is already embedded in the state budget at least through 2027–2028. In reality, Russia's military expenditures are higher, as the Kremlin conceals the actual level of spending," Ukraine's intelligence added.

Russian soldiers (photo: Facebook)

At the same time, Russia's potential mobilization resource is estimated at up to 5 million people. This number allows the Kremlin to plan large-scale military conflicts against Western nations.

Obviously, under current conditions, Russia is not ready for a major war with NATO - its operations in Ukraine consume enormous resources. But hybrid operations, small skirmishes, and provocations are all within Moscow's current capabilities.

Baltic scenario

Russia has always viewed NATO as a threat, even though the Alliance has never declared hostile intentions toward Russia. But since Putin is arming up to fight for his own imperial ambitions, he assumes that any military formation pursues the same goals. And Russia, in his eyes, has always been a "prize" for Western powers. Thus, in the current standoff, his first objective is to break NATO.

"I'm convinced this plan is quite simple: first destabilize NATO, then proceed to military takeover. Because naturally, fighting the whole Alliance isn't in their plans. The ideal scenario would be if the Americans pulled out of NATO on their own, but even with Trump, that's unlikely. So what's left is undermining the Alliance's collective security," said Russian opposition political analyst Ivan Preobrazhensky in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

Such undermining by Russia is already underway, and the Baltic states, as NATO members, today represent a so-called shadow front in the conflict between Russia and the Alliance. For example, The Wall Street Journal, citing numerous Western officials, noted that since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Russian forces have increased provocations in the Baltic region. Russian navy ships fire warning shots at NATO vessels in the Baltic Sea, while fighter jets dump fuel and fire at Alliance reconnaissance aircraft.

In addition to military provocations, Russians are conducting various cyberattacks. According to Mart Noorma, the former Director of the NATO Joint Cyber Defense Center of Excellence (CCDCOE), Estonia is essentially in a state of cyberwar with Russia - attacks occur weekly and have evolved from hacking to professional intelligence operations. This has already prompted Estonians to begin calculating the potential risks of a war with Russia.

Estonian soldier (photo: Getty Images)

"Russia continues reforming its armed forces, primarily in preparation for a large-scale war. There are several reasons for this: from reviving Russia's military image to temporarily easing socio-economic tensions, as the Putin regime has steered its war economy toward destruction. This creates the preconditions for irrational use of this potential. So we remain vigilant and watch every step Russia takes," said Ants Kiviselg, Head of the Military Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defense Forces, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

Russia can come up with hundreds of pretexts for invasion. There's a city in Estonia called Narva, located on the eastern border, separated from Russia by a small river of the same name. Narva is 90% Russian-speaking, with all the accompanying attributes: Russian TV, schools, cultural centers, and so on.

Even today, Kremlin propaganda refers to Narva as a city where Russians are oppressed by Estonians. It's not hard to anticipate Russia's next steps - the scenario is well known and has been used multiple times. That's why Estonia has built a defensive line in Narva, strengthened border crossings, and deployed military forces there permanently.

Another possible excuse for war against the Baltic states is the passenger train Moscow-Kaliningrad, which regularly runs between the Russian capital and the semi-exclave between Lithuania and Poland. Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warned that Russia could use the train as a pretext for invasion to "rescue peaceful Russians."

"One possible scenario is that Russia could fake a breakdown of a train carrying Russian citizens and claim they need to be rescued. Then they could send in security units reinforced with troops, and it could escalate quickly," Landsbergis said in a comment to The Sun.

In addition, Russia might stage a provocation in the Suwałki Gap—a narrow strip of land on the border of Lithuania and Poland that forms the shortest land route between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, measuring just 65 kilometers in width. The Kremlin undoubtedly keeps troops stationed in Kaliningrad, just in case. And most people living there are Russians, who are also occasionally "oppressed."

"In my view, the simplest option, and one that's been discussed, is to violate the flight ban to Kaliningrad under the pretext that Russians there are isolated, and send a civilian plane. Then what? You can't inspect whether they're carrying military cargo, you can't stop or land it. And who knows who might be on board?" Preobrazhensky remarked.

By the way, Russia has already used provocations involving the Suwałki Gap. Back in 2021, the Belarusian authorities, with Russia's support, began directing tens of thousands of migrants from the Middle East and Africa through the corridor to Poland and the Baltic states, which Western countries viewed as a hybrid attack aimed at destabilizing the EU.

Lithuanian soldiers (photo: Getty Images)

One way or another, the number of scenarios and pretexts for invasion is virtually limitless, especially when driven by someone's fantasies. Russians, who scornfully refer to the Baltic region as the Pribaltika (a Russian term that, when translated literally means "by the Baltic Sea"), have long expressed their interest in these countries. It's clear that the Baltic states likely can't fend off Russia alone if Moscow dares to launch an open military conflict. But NATO's passivity in the face of hybrid clashes may signal weakness and inaction to the Kremlin, and for them, weakness is a green light for aggression.

Article V

"Russia needs to understand that the Baltic countries are part of NATO, just like the United Kingdom or France. Article V holds power, so an attack on a NATO country would mean escalation with the entire Alliance," said the Head of Estonian intelligence in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

In his London speech, NATO Secretary General Rutte repeatedly emphasized the need to restructure and significantly strengthen the Alliance's defense capabilities. Meanwhile, at the Summit in The Hague, member states agreed that no less than 5% of their GDP should be spent on defense.

In parallel, NATO is already calculating how it would respond if Russia attacked the Baltic states. A potential attack scenario and the Alliance's response were modeled by the US Center for a New American Security. According to the scenario, the Russian army launches an offensive on Latvia and attacks Lithuania, using staging grounds in the Kaliningrad region and Belarus.

NATO troops stationed in the Baltic Sea retreat until reinforcements arrive, which they expect in about 10 days. Until then, the Baltic states defend themselves with their own forces and with the help of 800 Bundeswehr soldiers currently deployed in Lithuania.

According to the scenario, Russia could occupy Latvia within three days and advance on Lithuania, but NATO battalions arriving in time would flank the Russian army and defeat it. However, Lithuania would become "devastated and partially occupied" in the worst-case scenario.

Experts remain quite skeptical about scenarios of a full-scale Russian invasion, favoring instead the hybrid variants described earlier. And those are more dangerous, because NATO has no clear response to them, since they don't involve a formal declaration of war.

"That combined could produce a situation where a limited current is not being responded to in appropriate force, and that would then trigger a sort of downward spiral of NATO and European disintegration to the point where Russia is sort of free to effectively walk into countries that previously were members of NATO and EU," said Rafael Loss, Policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

Putin with his army in the background (photo: Getty Images)

Members of the Alliance have repeatedly stated that they will not initiate an open conflict with Russia, and that their response can only follow Kremlin actions. At the same time, despite its advances in the military industry, Russia remains critically weakened. However, NATO is, first and foremost, a defensive alliance, so even in today's context, its members are not attempting to curb Russian influence on the continent, as seen in Georgia or Moldova.

To defend and to respond - that is the fundamental principle, as described by former US President Joe Biden in his article for The New York Times. And despite some internal disagreements within the Alliance, externally, its geopolitical course remains unchanged: not to engage in open war with Russia.

For now, NATO remains confident that there will be no open conflict with Russia as long as the Kremlin is "busy" with Ukraine. But history shows that what seemed impossible yesterday can easily become reality today.

"It's hard to say that Europeans are hoping for the war in Ukraine never to end. What would be even better, I think, from Europe's perspective, is to disabuse Russia of thinking about attacking its neighbors by having them lose. And Ukraine restoring its sovereignty and territorial integrity, makes Russia lose and thereby sobering the Russian society from this sort of imperial hangover. But that's not an easy feat to achieve," Loss added.