Why 'Dnipro offensive' may not benefit Putin: Expert perspective
Photo: Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
The Russian forces will continue to promote the topic of an "offensive on Dnipro" in the information space. However, a real offensive may be disadvantageous even for Putin, states Ivan Tymochko, head of the Reserve Council of the Ground Forces, in a comment for the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
"The Russians are interested in all of Ukraine, including the Dnipropetrovsk region. Are they capable of this militarily? That’s a completely different question. There may be attempts to cross the administrative border. They may try, or maybe not because their target area is Donetsk," he said.
According to Tymochko, trying to enter another region and not completing the mission is evidence that the Russian troops are incapable of conducting successful military operations.
"This may not be of significant importance to them, but it is crucial for presenting Putin on the international stage. When an army starts operations it cannot finish, it raises questions about the professionalism of such an army. He understands this perfectly. That’s why we see that the concentration of forces is happening around Donetsk region," the military expert explained.
At the same time, he believes that it is a good thing that the heads of administrations have started to announce that they are enhancing the preparation of fortifications.
"What do we need to understand? Administrative borders of regions are a very conditional area... And indeed, preventive action should be taken, it's better to prevent than to act in haste later. On the other hand, the Dnipro direction will be more promoted by the Russians in information campaigns. Right now, they are already fueling this narrative that they will move towards the city of Dnipro. They will try to use this in the information space, but they understand perfectly well what actually awaits them there – it's not bread and salt, but a much worse situation," adds Tymochko.
However, on the other hand, according to him, the information or panic campaign will definitely have a serious impact on internal affairs in Ukraine.
"But as a military operation, this means that they will need to pull 30-50 thousand personnel to this direction from somewhere. Do they have the capacity, or will they still focus on their priority directions? I think they will focus there," he concluded.
Possible Russian offensive on Dnipro
Just today, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council, Mykola Lukashuk, advised residents of frontline areas to leave in advance if possible.
"The regional military administration can provide assistance with evacuations from dangerous areas and secure places to stay. If you decide to remain, it's important to carefully assess all risks and be prepared for any situation," he noted.
However, at this time, no official evacuation has been declared from the frontline communities of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Additionally, military expert Ivan Stupak recently mentioned in a comment for the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel that fighting may begin in the Dnipropetrovsk region if the Russian forces cross the administrative border. However, it's more likely that Russia will first attempt to "pressure" the Donetsk region.
