Russian attacks on Avdiivka and in other directions: What's happening on frontlines
Photo: Ukrainian military on the Bakhmut direction (Getty Images)
Russian troops are attacking almost the entire eastern front. The situation is particularly challenging in Avdiivka, and the enemy has achieved partial success near Kupiansk.
A military expert and former spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Seleznov, provided more details on the situation in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Capture of Krokhmalne village near Kupiansk by the Russian troops
Last week, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Krokhmale, a village about 20 km from Kupiansk. Essentially, this poses no new threats. The Russians captured a piece of land 2x2 km, and there are no prerequisites for any further success for them. The R-07 highway, which they supposedly cut off, is not used by the Defense Forces. We are positioned to the west in prepared and equipped positions.
A settlement, with five or six buildings, is unlikely to be a factor that will fundamentally change the situation on the battlefield. Svatove is occupied, and for understandable reasons, we do not travel there along the R-07 highway. To say that it can be used as a bypass road is also not worth it.
Moreover, if the enemy took control of a section of the road to Kupiansk, it does not mean Russians can advance further. Of course, they aim to capture part of the Kharkiv region at least up to the left bank of the Oskil River. But given that they have been stagnating near Synkivka for three months, it is unclear how they will implement their plan.
Attacks on Vesele village in the Siversk direction
Last week there were reports of the alleged capture of Vesele north of Bakhmut in the Siversk direction. There is no confirmation of this. Siversk bulge has long frustrated the Russians, as there is still a threat of a flank attack by the Defense Forces toward Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. They (Russian troops - Ed.) are pushing to displace us but it doesn't work. The dominant heights, our advantageous location, mean that they can't do anything.
Regarding Vesele, it has long been in the gray zone, and now they have advanced. However, on the approaches to it, there is lowland, and accordingly, any movement is well visible to our military. I think a few mortar attacks could relieve the Russians of their troubles, whether it's worth staying there or not.
Situation in Avdiivka
There was information about the enemy penetrating the residential suburb from the south. Presumably, street fighting may have started. It's unclear how the enemy managed to implement a bold maneuver bypassing our positions in the area of the hotel-restaurant complex 'Tsarska Okhota.' I don't know how they did it, but it happened. The enemy is already on Chernyshevskoho, Sportyvna, and Soborna streets.
The situation is not very good. Of course, battles would go for every street, but it was more convenient to keep the occupiers at a distance. The enemy is gradually advancing toward the 9th block, and this is a very dangerous challenge. Maintaining control over Avdiivka and the suburbs is a matter of resources. If there is not enough, we will see a maneuverable defense by the Ukrainian army.
Intensification in the Berdyansk direction
The enemy tried to advance near Urozhaine (south of Velyka Novosilka settlement), but the Defense Forces regained control of the positions. These settlements were in the spotlight in the summer. We all hoped for advancement, but we ran into the Mokri Yaly River, which essentially stopped us. The terrain there is quite specific and prevents both us and the occupiers from making significant advances.
Although some tactical-level actions may be taking place. Perhaps the enemy tried to divert attention to this section of the front, trying to push our forces. It didn't work; they suffered losses, and the status quo was restored without immediate prospects of radically changing the situation.
Russian grouping on the left bank of the Kherson region
British intelligence believes that the offensive capabilities of the occupiers are limited due to weak preparation. I'm not ready to assess this. This is because there are quite a few different units concentrated in the Krynky area. These are units of the newly formed 18th Army, parts of the 22nd Army Corps stationed in Crimea, paratroopers, units of the 40th Army, and seemingly marine infantry from the Caspian Flotilla, private military companies.
The situation there is quite dynamic. Currently, the enemy is using various types of drones to damage our logistics. On the other hand, we cannot expand the bridgehead. The issue of crossing the Dnipro River is unresolved and is unlikely to be resolved soon. To establish a crossing and create stable logistics, the bridgehead needs to be expanded. Currently, we do not have such an opportunity.
