Russian forces unlikely to break through near Pokrovsk in Ukraine, says expert
Russia may be preparing an offensive near Pokrovsk (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Russia has already deployed all available resources it could direct toward the Pokrovsk axis. However, the plans, intentions, and timelines for the full occupation of the city have long since not been met, said Ivan Tymochko, head of the Council of Reservists of Ukraine's Ground Forces.
"Talking about them building up some more powerful reserves and striking soon falls within a certain framework of information propaganda," he said.
At the same time, according to Tymochko, the enemy could theoretically redeploy personnel from other directions — for example, from the southern, Kherson sector or from Crimea. However, he emphasized that more than 100,000, or possibly even 110,000 troops are already concentrated in this direction. A sharp increase in forces by at least another 50,000 would mean either transferring units from Russia or pulling them from other parts of the front.
The expert also recalled that, according to the Commander-in-Chief, Russia has concentrated around 700,000 troops along the entire frontline and has approximately 130,000 in reserve.
"We understand that they definitely won’t be able to throw a third or half of all their reserves at a single direction," he explained.
Russians need to compensate for losses
In addition, the Russians must compensate for daily battlefield losses, which can reach around one thousand personnel. There are also those who desert, fall ill, or refuse to go on the offensive.
"Even if they conscript 40,000 to 50,000 each month, part of that goes to cover losses, and these are certainly not the forces that can rapidly boost reserves," Tymochko noted.
Regarding the situation in Pokrovsk itself, he emphasized that assessing the possibility of encirclement requires knowledge of the actual strength of Ukrainian forces in the area, the level of defenses, and the current condition of the Russian army.
"Trying to intensify attacks is one thing. But a sudden shift would mean, hypothetically, that tomorrow another 50,000 to 100,000 Russian soldiers begin advancing. But if we're already discussing it, then the element of surprise is gone," the expert explained.
In his opinion, statements about a potential escalation by Russia are part of an information game intended to show that the Ukrainian side is aware of the enemy's plans.
Tymochko stated that the Russians had attempted to attack Pokrovsk head-on, but unsuccessfully. They also tried to bypass the city from the flank, from the southwest, and are now trying to expand their offensive in the Novopavlivka direction. Despite this, they have failed to break through the defensive line between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
"The Pokrovsk direction is already the hottest. So to say that the situation there will suddenly and unexpectedly change — definitely not," he concluded.
Situation near Pokrovsk
According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian forces continue to suffer setbacks on the front. They are failing to break through Ukrainian defenses in key directions.
Meanwhile, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that an enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group (SRG) attempted to infiltrate Pokrovsk. Ukrainian defenders repelled the enemy assault.
The Operational Tactical Group Donetsk reported that Defense Forces are actively countering enemy SRGs in Pokrovsk. According to the military, these groups are being destroyed before they can approach the city.
