Russia wants to force Ukraine into neutrality, analyst warns as peace talks resume
Photo: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump (RBC-Ukraine collage)
The resumption of negotiations is a positive development, but it is far too early to talk about ending the war. Russia’s real goal is not a ceasefire, but securing new concessions from Ukraine, Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
A “symbolic gift” to Trump and the Kremlin’s calculations
The expert said Donald Trump’s statements should be viewed in light of his personal style: he tends to present what he wants to be true as if it were reality.
At the same time, Russia is now adapting its approach to Trump and sending him positive signals.
“I believe that Russia’s agreement to resume negotiations in a trilateral format is another symbolic gift from Putin to Trump ahead of November 3. It is a symbolic gift to Trump, as if to say that Trump’s efforts to end the war are working and that Putin is ready to negotiate with him,” Fesenko stressed.
The political analyst also drew attention to the timing of the meeting, which is expected to take place in the second week of November. It will come after the November 3 US congressional elections but before the APEC summit, where a trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping is possible.
What Russia really wants from the negotiations
According to Fesenko, agreeing to negotiations does not mean agreeing to end the war or reach a ceasefire. The key issue for Russia, judging by statements from Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, is the postwar security arrangement and the roles Ukraine and Russia would play in it.
“Let’s spell it out. I think Russia’s position is that it will try to force us to formally recognize a neutral status — to make Ukraine agree to neutrality and get the Americans to accept it as well. Unfortunately, Trump may agree, but Europe is a different matter. Moreover, they want NATO to formally rule out Ukraine’s future membership in the alliance,” the political analyst said.
A new lever of pressure on Kyiv
Fesenko concluded that there is no reason to expect a dramatic change in the situation anytime soon.
“For now, resuming negotiations is not a path to peace. It is more likely to become another platform for putting pressure on us. There is military pressure through strikes on Ukraine, pressure through the Americans, and there will be pressure through negotiations at this forum. For now, these are technical talks; there will be no other kind of negotiations,” Fesenko said.
Read more: Zelenskyy reveals conditions for a deal to end Russia's war against Ukraine
