Russia losing influence in the South Caucasus – Ukrainian political scientist
Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan (Getty Images)
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have significantly cooled. In fact, this means that Moscow no longer holds substantial influence in the South Caucasus, said Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.
"This doesn't mean a radical shift in Azerbaijan's policy, but it does represent a significant cooling of relations. And it's becoming a trend. A few months ago, there was already a noticeable chill after the Russians shot down an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft and neither apologized nor took responsibility," the political scientist said, commenting on the conflict between the two countries.
He pointed out that in Russia, national minorities — particularly those from the Caucasus and Central Asia — are often perceived as an internal problem. During the recent raid in Yekaterinburg targeting Azerbaijani citizens, excessive force was used.
"So even if there were suspicions of criminal activity, the fact that two people were killed during the arrests and searches, and a larger group was injured, clearly indicates the use of harsh methods. In Azerbaijan, this was perceived as an anti-Azerbaijani action," Fesenko noted.
Azerbaijan's response
According to the political scientist, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev responded strongly because he now feels more confident than before. Notably, he sees himself as the victor in the war with Armenia and relies on strong support from Türkiye.
Aliyev also observed how Russia failed to assist Iran in its conflict with Israel — something that gave him additional boldness.
"The weakening of Russia in the Caucasus and the Middle East generally aligns with Azerbaijan's interests. These bold and fairly tough actions from Azerbaijan are a clear sign that it is no longer afraid to challenge Russia," he noted.
At the same time, Fesenko added that a complete break in relations between the two countries is not expected. He described it as merely a "temporary adjustment."
"Of course, this is also a sign of Russia's declining influence in the South Caucasus and the post-Soviet space. This trend certainly matters to us, even though, unfortunately, it won't directly help us in our war with Russia... Still, any weakening of Russia's position is, without a doubt, significant for us. And let's hope this trend continues," he added.
Azerbaijan–Russia conflict
Last week in Yekaterinburg, Russian security forces conducted a raid on apartments belonging to members of the Azerbaijani diaspora. Dozens of Azerbaijanis were detained.
As a result of the raid, two Azerbaijani nationals were killed, and others were injured.
In response, Azerbaijan detained FSB agents who were reportedly working for the state-run propaganda agency Sputnik.
