Peace in 50 days? Expert reveals why Trump’s deadline makes no sense

According to him, as for the 50 days, it’s Trump’s style. It has nothing to do with Putin’s 60-day ultimatum on capturing regions. He noted that Trump’s last conversation with Putin took place on June 30, and if you count from that date, the 50-day mark falls in September.

"Of course, you could try to link the two numbers, suggesting it’s all part of the same thing and that Trump is giving Putin time. But time for what? This war has already been going on for three and a half years," Fesenko emphasized.

The expert believes that such an interpretation is merely a conspiracy theory because, regardless of how one feels about Trump, "he’s not stupid." He offered another explanation: 50 days fits the "classic Trump's negotiation model," which he called "controlled, managed escalation."

"Just look at how he acts on tariff deals. Right now, many countries around the world have received so-called letters of happiness from Trump," the expert noted.

In these letters, Trump announced tariffs ranging from 25% to 30%, as in the case with China, where the rate later rose to 125%. Yet despite these moves, the parties eventually reached agreements.

However, Fesenko argued that this model won’t work when it comes to the war in Ukraine.

"This isn’t about duties or tariffs, it’s about war and Putin’s goals, which have no economic basis," he said.

The expert explained that Trump thinks like a businessman, while Putin operates with a geopolitical and ideological mindset. Therefore, in his view, a peace deal within 50 days is unrealistic.

"In reality, this deadline isn’t just for Putin, it’s more for Trump himself," he said, adding that once the 50 days are up, the question becomes: what next?

Fesenko also addressed Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs against Russia, calling it a bluff, as the trade volume between the US and Russia is relatively small, just over $3 billion. However, he noted that the issue of 100% tariffs on China, Türkiye, or India is far more serious. Still, he expressed doubt that Trump would go that far with Beijing unless there is a sharp deterioration in relations.

Separately, Fesenko emphasized the importance of direct signaling in negotiations: "Signals shouldn’t go through Mark Rutte but directly from Trump to Xi Jinping or through American negotiators to the Chinese," he said. In his view, the goal of such efforts would be to limit purchases of Russian oil or to pressure Putin into ending the war.

"I’m absolutely convinced there won’t be any peace deal in 50 days. If anything does happen, it will be later, because Putin will not demonstrate agreement to Trump's ultimatums. Otherwise, he’ll look weak. And then Trump can’t afford to look weak either," the expert concluded.

Trump's changing approach to Russia

Recently, Donald Trump once again expressed frustration with Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress in peace talks regarding the war in Ukraine. In particular, he warned that if no agreement is reached within 50 days, the United States will impose new secondary tariffs.

Read more about the changes in Trump's attitude toward Putin and Russia and whether his threats will help stop the war in the material by RBC-Ukraine.