Trump vs. Putin: Could White House's threats end war in Ukraine?

Key questions:

• Will secondary trade tariffs be effective against Russia?
• Under what conditions might buyers refuse Russian energy resources?
• Can the decline of the Russian economy affect Putin’s plans?

US President Donald Trump for the first time issued a clear ultimatum to Putin regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine war. During a conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, he announced his intention to impose 100% secondary trade tariffs on Russia if Putin does not agree to end the war within 50 days.

In his usual manner, Trump did not go into details, thus creating strategic uncertainty. However, in general terms, this initiative is aimed at pressuring buyers of Russian oil so that they ultimately reject it. However, several key questions remain open regarding the US President’s new idea.

Question 1. Will tariffs force buyers to abandon Russian oil?

Trump’s threat of tariffs is a powerful signal to all those who buy Russian energy resources and thus finance Russia’s aggression. If imposed, this will lead to a doubling of prices on goods from India, China, Türkiye, or Brazil imported into the US. As a result, these goods will become less competitive compared to products from other countries on the American market. But there are nuances here.

Access to the US markets is indeed an important factor for many buyers of Russian oil. For example, last year China’s trade volume with the US was 2.7 times greater than between China and Russia — $664 billion versus $244.8 billion, respectively. So, on the one hand, it would be more profitable for China to keep the American market by sacrificing trade with Russia. However, political considerations start to play a role in this situation. As RBC-Ukraine reported, for China, a war far from its borders is beneficial, but Beijing is also not interested in a total Russian victory.

Recently, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas that China will not accept Russia losing the war because after its end, the US will focus on China.

Reacting to Trump’s current initiative, an unnamed Chinese Foreign Ministry official told The Telegraph that there are no winners in a customs war, and coercion and pressure will not solve problems.

Beijing’s position in this situation is the toughest. Other countries still buy energy resources from Russia purely for mercantile reasons, so it is comparatively easier to get the desired result from them. And here everything depends on how determined the US is to achieve that result.

"When the US, for example, imposed sanctions on yet another Russian bank, the Chinese and Indians closely followed, and when a new list appeared, they paused cooperation with those entities. This went on for some time, but then a workaround was found and everything continued," explained Mikhailo Honchar, president of the Globalization Center Strategy XXI, to RBC-Ukraine.

At the same time, there are a number of factors influencing Trump’s decisions regarding specific tariffs. The main one is that imposing tariffs will lead to higher prices for goods inside the US, which is important for Trump’s voters. So in each case, the US will weigh all nuances and possible consequences primarily for themselves. How this works was demonstrated in the last few months of Trump’s trade war.

"Let’s see how China, India, and Brazil behave, but the hint that they should think about diversifying supply sources is very unpleasant for Russia. Because if at some point both China and India say: we don’t want these tariffs, we buy everything from the Saudis and other Gulf representatives, then, of course, Russia falls out of the game," Ivan Us, chief consultant of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, told RBC-Ukraine.

Question 2. How would the introduction of tariffs affect Russia?

Even if the US President activates secondary tariffs at full capacity, there’s a chance Russia will try to circumvent them. The Kremlin is already using a shadow fleet of tankers to bypass the so-called oil price cap.

Ukraine and EU countries are trying to counter this, but the situation resembles a cat-and-mouse game - vessels from the shadow fleet are constantly being sanctioned by Europe, while Russia continuously purchases new ones or finds ways to hide the existing ones.

Additionally, the sale of Russian oil can be disguised as another, noted Mykhailo Honchar in a comment to the outlet.

"There’s no real need to prepare a workaround, it already exists. Russian oil and oil products are simply mixed somewhere in Malaysia or Indonesia with other grades, and then some other company sells it as a different kind of crude. Some mix that cannot be identified as Russian oil," said Honchar.

If efforts against Russian energy exports become systematic rather than selective, the outcome could be more effective. But this would require tracing the entire supply chain. The most effective measure would be to physically restrict the access of shadow tankers to Russian ports. Notably, about 60% of Russia’s oil exports pass through the Baltic Sea.

At present, it’s hard to assess the resilience of the Russian economy. However, if Trump’s secondary tariffs do begin to work effectively, the Kremlin will face three major problems related to oil.

"Russia would clearly face the problem of where to offload its oil. Second, the problem of reduced revenue from oil sales. And third, the question of what to do with extraction. So, there is a way to deal with Russian oil exports. The issue is that no one has serious intentions to take action," Honchar emphasized.

It’s worth noting that the export of Russian energy resources can be influenced not only by the United States but also by the European Union. However, despite strong declarations, achieving results is not always successful. For example, Russian oil still flows to Hungary and Slovakia.

Question 3. How will the threats affect Putin?

The Kremlin’s leader has spent decades balancing various factions of the Russian elite using a "divide and rule" strategy. As long as the internal economic situation in Russia remained relatively stable, their contradictions didn’t escalate too far. However, Trump’s statement about secondary tariffs could significantly worsen this situation and, as a result, deepen internal tensions, said Ivan Us.

"One group is the party of great blood - those who advocate for continuing the war at all costs, with no agreements. The second is the party of blood and money. This group, represented by figures like Kirill Dmitriev, says: no, listen, we still need to leave room for negotiations," Us explained.

There are serious, but not yet critical problems in Russia’s economy, so the second faction is interested in at least a partial de-escalation. If this part of the Russian elite manages to impose its position, Moscow may begin to simulate peace.

"Kirill Dmitriev and others could hypothetically pressure Putin - not to agree to real peace, but to declare it. That might be enough to satisfy Trump. He could say peace is coming, and then it could be violated later," Us added.

However, this could provoke discontent among the "hawks" in Russia’s leadership who are committed to continuing confrontation without compromise.

Question 4. Will Trump go through with it?

In recent months, the US President has shown that he can suddenly reverse his stance under the influence of his inner circle, self-interest, flattery, or illusions about the Russian leader. A striking example is the story involving his wife, Melania Trump.

On July 14, the US President said it was Melania who helped him shed illusions about Putin.

"I go home, I tell the First Lady, 'You know, I spoke to Vladimir (Putin – ed.) today, we had a wonderful conversation.' She said, 'Oh, really? Another city was just hit,'" Trump said.

Later, in another speech, Trump clarified that Melania had told him about Russia’s attack on a nursing home.

It’s clear that over the next 50 days, the battle to influence Trump’s position will continue. Ukraine has gained an advantage in that battle, but not a final victory.

Sources: statements from Donald Trump, as well as publications by Politico, CNN, The Telegraph, Bloomberg, and comments from Mykhailo Honchar and Ivan Us.