Trump's ultimatum. Will Putin back down after new US threats?

Key questions:

• Why did Trump announce secondary tariffs, and who will they affect?
• What weapons can Ukraine receive from the US, and who will pay for them?
• How might Putin respond to Trump’s ultimatum?

There has been a hint of movement in the stalled negotiations on ending the Russia–Ukraine war. US President Donald Trump has shifted from empty declarations of dissatisfaction with Putin to gradually increasing pressure on Russia. Although this pressure has not yet materialized, Trump’s threats are now clear and come with specific deadlines.

In the Oval Office, the US president stated that if Russia and Ukraine do not reach an agreement within 50 days — by the end of the August recess — the US will impose secondary tariffs on Russia.

“We're going to be doing secondary tariffs. If we don't have a deal in 50 days, it's very simple, and they'll be at 100%,” he said at a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Trump also expressed hope that such measures could be avoided, but emphasized that the US is ready to act tough.

This time, the US president is threatening secondary tariffs not only against Putin but also against his allies and partners. Primarily, that’s India and China, which purchase Russian energy resources, said Oleksandr Leonov, executive director of the Center for Applied Political Studies Penta, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine. If secondary tariffs are imposed, it will mean a 100% price increase on Indian and Chinese goods imported into the US. They would lose out in competition to products from other countries in the American market.

In this situation, it will also be crucial whether European countries join Trump’s initiative.

“If Europe joins this ultimatum and says, ‘we will also impose such tariffs,’ then China and India will simply have no choice but to start putting serious pressure on Russia to cease fire. Because these countries will really suffer greatly, and they cannot simultaneously replace both the American and European markets for themselves,” Leonov told RBC-Ukraine.

Patriots and more

The second part of Trump’s statement concerns the provision of weapons to Ukraine. The US president confirmed that 17 Patriot air defense systems are being prepared for delivery to Ukraine. Some of them, according to Trump, will arrive within a few days.

The US president had previously announced the delivery of additional Patriot systems to Ukraine. However, he did not clarify whether this referred to new batteries or simply missiles for the existing systems.

Ukraine will receive not only defensive weapons. Trump did not specify what exactly that meant. Earlier, Axios, citing sources in the White House, reported that Trump’s plan likely includes long-range missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory, including Moscow. Later, Military Watch Magazine reported that Trump is considering supplying Ukraine with JASSM missiles.

These are high-precision cruise missiles with a long range, designed to destroy fortified ground targets without entering the coverage area of enemy air defense systems. They are launched from fighter jets like the F-16 and can accurately strike targets up to 370 km away in the base version and over 900 km in the JASSM-ER modification.

Representatives of the US, Ukraine, and European countries hope that this weapon could change the course of the war and influence Putin’s decision on ending the fighting, Axios reports.

Among other things, American weapons remain key in containing the Russian offensive on most sectors of the front.

“The supply of weapons to Ukraine may nullify Putin’s desires and plans that he is building regarding Ukraine this summer,” Leonov emphasized.

The fundamental difference from previous deliveries is that NATO member countries will be the ones purchasing the weapons for Kyiv.

“We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons and they’re (NATO - ed.) going to be paying for them. They feel strongly about it and we feel strongly about it, too. But we’re in it for a lot of money and we don’t want to do it anymore,” Trump stated.

The US president will be able to present this to his voters as a “good deal.” On the other hand, European NATO members thus have the opportunity to count the aid to Ukraine toward their own defense expenditures, bringing them closer to meeting the 5% of GDP target for defense spending, which was a key point for the US at the latest NATO summit.

Finally, a breakthrough?

“This is truly a huge breakthrough, because just a month or a month and a half ago, Donald Trump completely refused to provide any weapons to Ukraine, and all the deliveries — which were either suspended or resumed — concerned only what Joe Biden had promised and planned to provide. So now this is essentially a new stage in the policy of this White House administration,” Leonov said.

Trump may receive even more tools for pressuring Russia from Congress. Diplomatic circles in Europe and Ukraine are placing great hopes on the sanctions bill proposed by Senators Graham and Blumenthal, which has the potential to hit the Russian economy hard.

But it’s too early to relax. Russia may likely try to manipulate Trump, as has happened several times before.

“It will be interesting to see how the Russians try to play this situation back a bit. And whether Trump will meet them halfway or continue to push his line,” Leonov concluded.

Yet even such half-measures from the White House chief will definitely help Ukraine, at least in the short term.

Sources: statements by Donald Trump, articles by Axios, Fox News, Military Watch Magazine, and comments from Oleksandr Leonov.