Is ceasefire in Ukraine possible by April 20? Political scientist's assessment

"In general, by April 20, what could Trump theoretically achieve? Theoretically, the adoption of a temporary ceasefire regime is possible. That is the only thing that is possible. In other words, a lasting peace will definitely not be in place by that time," Nesvitailov noted.

According to the political scientist, while Russia is stalling for time to completely push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region and possibly attempt to enter the Sumy region or other areas of Ukraine, it aims to advance along this front line and exhaust the last remnants of its offensive potential.

"And when they realize that their offensive potential is depleted, that they are out of breath, they will say: 'Quickly, let’s establish a ceasefire here and now. Here and now,'" Nesvitailov added.

He believes that a month is more than enough for the Russian forces to significantly entrench themselves, build fortifications — since they already have experience in this — and at the same time continue their information attacks against Ukraine.

"They will push for stopping mobilization, halting aid to Ukraine, and insist that 'Well, that’s it, the war is now stopped, hostilities have ceased, so now you must lift martial law and announce elections,'" Nesvitailov continued.

He is convinced that before a decision on lasting peace is made, Russia’s goal will be to maximally destabilize the situation in Ukraine so that elections take place in this unstable environment. According to the expert, these elections would further destabilize the situation and create divisions in society — this is Russia’s plan.

"If we follow this path without a clear understanding — if by the time of the ceasefire announcement and the start of negotiations, we do not have a system of clear security guarantees from our partners, and if not security guarantees, then at least economic and partnership guarantees from the United States — then there is simply no point in following this path. Because, well, it is clear what Russia gains, but what we gain as a result of these negotiations is absolutely unclear," Nesvitailov concluded.

Ceasefire in Ukraine

The US, during a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, proposed establishing a 30-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine agreed to the proposal.

During a conversation with Trump, the Russian dictator allegedly "gave an order" for Russian occupiers to stop attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure. However, despite this, Russians continue to launch drones and missiles at Ukraine.

On March 23 and 24, US representatives in Saudi Arabia are meeting with delegations from Ukraine and Russia. The goal of the current meetings is to finalize details of a possible partial ceasefire, including halting strikes on energy infrastructure and ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea. This, in turn, could be a step toward a full ceasefire.

As for the timeline, according to Bloomberg, the US aims to secure a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by April 20. However, the White House does not rule out the possibility of delays.