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First drone attack pause in months - Expert analyzes possible reasons

First drone attack pause in months - Expert analyzes possible reasons Illustrative photo: Russia did not launch drones for the first time in months (Getty Images)
Author: Daryna Vialko

For the first time in a long while, the Russian army has paused its drone attacks on Ukrainian territory. However, there could be several reasons behind this move, said military expert Ivan Stupak in a comment to RBC-Ukraine’s YouTube channel.

According to him, there is no single explanation for Russia’s decision. Multiple factors may be involved. He noted that in March last year, Russia launched about 500 drones at Ukraine, while in March this year, the number rose to around 4,000.

"It would be shortsighted to assume something broke down or was destroyed and that there will be no more drones. That’s not the case. At the moment, I have one main theory, though more may emerge over time. This could be an attempt to stockpile drones for a day or two and then launch a massive wave, possibly over 500 at once," Stupak explained.

He warned that in this case, it would be a very significant overload of the Ukrainian air defence system, leading to significant consequences.

"There’s speculation in the media that Trump supposedly called Putin or criticized him so harshly that Putin got scared and decided to halt drone strikes. I don’t find this theory convincing," Stupak said.

He added that in the coming days, it will become clear what is happening.

"But indeed, for the first time in several months, there were no Russian drones in Ukraine’s airspace," he emphasized.

A night without Shaheds

For the first time since December last year, the Russian army did not attack Ukrainian territory with Shahed-type strike drones overnight.

Notably, during the previous pause, experts cited weather conditions as a likely reason, as heavy fog covered large parts of Ukraine, and some cities experienced icy conditions.

Read more about Russia’s drone attack pause in the material by RBC-Ukraine.