Could India-Pakistan conflict escalate into nuclear war? Expert assessment
Illustrative photo: India and Pakistan have been in conflict (Getty Images)
India and Pakistan, between which a conflict has recently broken out, are nuclear powers. However, both sides are likely to refrain from using nuclear weapons, said Natalia Butyrska, an expert on East Asia, Master of Foreign Policy, in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
The expert noted that both countries have mobilized their militaries amid rising tensions. Pakistan deployed naval vessels to the sea and moved troops closer to the land border.
“Such movements raise serious concerns that any accidental gunfire could escalate into a major clash, especially if there’s a trigger, if there’s a spark, and especially with both sides’ forces looking at each other,” Butyrska emphasized.
According to her, the world is watching this conflict with concern over whether it could escalate into a full-scale war. For now, there are two likely scenarios: either a limited response from India or a more serious military confrontation.
The expert also pointed out that the nuclear issue is now being raised. India’s doctrine does not allow for the first use of nuclear weapons, but it permits a retaliatory strike in response to aggression. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine, on the other hand, allows for the first use of such weapons.
"In my view, there will still be a regime of certain deterrence and understanding of the consequences between the countries. I hope this won’t lead to a major conflict, but will end in heightened tension that will eventually deescalate, allowing both sides to return to the status quo they previously maintained,” she said.
India–Pakistan conflict
On April 22, the militant group Kashmir Resistance attacked a group of tourists, killing 25 Indian citizens and one Nepali national.
India believes Pakistan was behind the terrorist attack. The Pakistani government denies the accusation.
More on the conflict read in the material by RBC-Ukraine.
