Chances of war moving into Russian territory and whether Ukraine needs it: Expert's opinion
It would be beneficial for Ukraine if Russian rebels moved the war to Russian territory (photo: Getty Images)
Moving the war to Russia is beneficial for Ukraine. It will not only distract enemy forces but will also serve to reduce shelling and attempts at offensive actions by the Russian military. However, it is important to consider whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces or Russian volunteer formations are to be considered as the executors of such a transfer.
Military expert Pavlo Narozhnyy told RBC-Ukraine what the difference is and whether the war can move to the territory of the aggressor country.
Contents
- Ukrainian Armed Forces' reasons not to enter Russian territory
- Ukraine benefits from raids by Russian volunteers
Ukrainian Armed Forces' reasons not to enter Russian territory
According to the expert, as soon as the Ukrainian Armed Forces decide to fight in Russia, it will be an expeditionary war for Ukraine. In this case, Ukrainian soldiers will be fighting on foreign territory.
"There are a huge number of Russian citizens there. They will be defending their territory from the occupiers, and from any point of view, it will be right," says Narozhnyy.
He notes that in such a scenario, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to use a huge amount of our forces, in particular, to perform police tasks in the occupied territory.
"Let's imagine in a very deep theoretical way that we have occupied the city of Belgorod. This means that some huge military unit will just stand there. This is completely wrong from a military point of view. When we fight on our own territory and, for example, liberate a place with a population, it is ours, the Ukrainian population. Yes, it is necessary to conduct a check there, but these are by default our citizens and do not threaten us," Narozhnyy explained.
The speaker emphasized that the situation on the territory of the Russian Federation will be completely different. Ukrainian forces will be forced to carry everything with them: food, water, ammunition, medicine, etc.
"It will not even be possible to stop at a gas station and refuel there, because it will pose risks to our soldiers. So to say that we will be able to wage war in the enemy's territory, I think, is unrealistic from a logistical point of view. In my opinion, we simply cannot do it," Narozhnyy said.
Ukraine benefits from raids by Russian volunteers
Instead, the picture will be quite the opposite if the Russian rebels, who have repeatedly organized raids in the border regions, move the fighting to the territory of Russia. As the speaker emphasizes, this would be a case of their internal problems and showdowns. For Ukraine, however, this scenario is beneficial, and the expert explained why.
"All communities in Sumy region that border the Russian border are under fire. There is constant artillery shelling there. Moreover, some towns have been resettled in the 5-kilometer zone. Of course, the residents have remained there, but most of them have been resettled. In addition, bombs are flying over Sumy, and so on. Therefore, it will be beneficial for us if the fighting is located 5-10 kilometers from the Ukrainian border," says Narozhnyy.
According to him, this will mean that Ukrainian border towns and villages will "breathe much freer" and that although the shelling will continue, it will be much less frequent. This will also minimize Russian attempts to advance, and will also affect the activities of their subversive reconnaissance groups.
"Because they will have to go through the "gray" zone, which is much more difficult. That is, it will in any case protect the Ukrainian border settlements," Narozhnyy summarized.
"Breakthrough" of the border in the Kursk region
Yesterday morning, the Russian authorities began spreading information about an alleged "attempt to break through" the border in the Kursk region by Ukrainian soldiers.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces allegedly entered with heavy equipment, and fighting broke out in several areas. As reported online, several Russian conscripts were allegedly taken prisoner as part of these events, and Russia may have lost a Ka-52. The shooting down of the enemy aircraft was officially reported by the Sumy Regional Air Force, but without details, so it is not known for certain under what specific circumstances the helicopter was destroyed.
According to expert Pavlo Narozhnyy, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces really entered the Kursk region, this operation could be a diversionary one. However, the Ukrainian authorities have not officially commented on the situation.
Read more about the consequences of the "breakthrough" of the border in the Kursk region of Russia in a separate RBC-Ukraine article.
