Billions for the Kremlin? Why Trump's diesel deal with Putin won't lower US prices
Photo: Trump and Putin (RBC-Ukraine collage)
A deal to supply Russian diesel fuel to the United States could bring the Kremlin billions of dollars in gross revenue and deliver a political win for Washington. However, it is unlikely to lower prices for American consumers, energy expert Hennadii Riabtsev, director of special projects at the Psychea Scientific and Technical Center, said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
How much could Russia make from the “diesel deal”
According to the expert, the announced agreement calls for Russia to initially supply 300,000 metric tons of diesel fuel, with the volume potentially increasing to 4.8 million metric tons later. The initial shipments could generate $240 million to $300 million in gross revenue for Russia.
Supplying the full volume could potentially bring the Kremlin $3.8 billion to $4.8 billion.
The expert stressed that these figures represent gross revenue, not net profit. The actual proceeds will depend on contract prices, logistics costs, and whether the agreement is fully implemented.
Does Russia have enough diesel, and what are the constraints
In theory, Russia could supply such volumes, as it previously exported more than 3 million metric tons per month. However, several factors significantly limit its capacity:
- Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries;
- damage to logistics chains;
- the urgent need to supply the domestic fuel market.
As a result, the initial shipment of 300,000 metric tons appears entirely realistic, while implementation of the full-scale program remains highly uncertain.
Will fuel prices fall in the US
Riabtsev believes Donald Trump’s plan to lower prices in the United States by using Russian diesel is unlikely to work.
“Will prices in the US fall? Unlikely. The initial 300,000 metric tons amount to less than a single day of US diesel consumption. Even the entire announced volume would be unable to affect global benchmark prices, which are determined primarily by the situation in the Middle East, destabilized by Trump,” the expert explained.
Therefore, Riabtsev said, the economic benefits for the Kremlin are far more evident than those for American consumers.
“Russia gains additional foreign-currency revenue and an opportunity to ease sanctions pressure, while Trump gets primarily a short-term political boost from promising to lower prices primarily,” he added.
The diesel deal
As a reminder, on October 9, Trump once again blamed Ukraine for rising fuel prices in the United States. He argued that diesel was becoming more expensive in America because of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. The US president therefore began demanding that Ukraine stop attacking refineries in Russia. He also announced a “diesel deal” with Russia. Under the terms of the deal, Russia is expected to supply millions of metric tons of diesel fuel to US and global markets.
In addition, on Sunday, October 11, Trump announced an “energy truce” between Ukraine and Russia. He claimed both sides had agreed to it, although Ukraine learned of the decision from news reports, while Russia did not respond until Monday. The Kremlin said yesterday that the initiative was under discussion.
Today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine had not attacked Russian oil refineries or energy infrastructure for two days, while Russian forces continue striking Ukraine’s energy facilities and critical infrastructure.
