Another Tu-95 hit after Operation Spiderweb: How it weakens Russia's ability to attack Ukraine
Photo: Tu-95 bombers are wearing out quickly (wikimedia.org)
Russia likely has no more than two dozen Tu-95 strategic bombers capable of launching cruise missiles at Ukraine, and the fleet is rapidly wearing out, said aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Ukraine's security forces have destroyed another Tu-95 strategic bomber at the Engels air base. The aircraft had been used to launch missile strikes against Ukrainian cities. The bomber was located about 800 kilometers from Ukraine's state border.
How many Tu-95 bombers does Russia have left?
"According to Military Balance, Russia had about 60 Tu-95MS aircraft at the beginning of 2022, but that figure comes from the International Institute for Strategic Studies' annual report. The Russians themselves claimed that they had around 47 aircraft," Kryvolap said.
During Russia's first wave of large-scale missile attacks against Ukraine in late 2022 and early 2023, Moscow typically used no more than 20 strategic bombers.
Given that, under normal conditions, around 80% of an aircraft fleet is operational while the rest undergo scheduled maintenance, Kryvolap estimates that Russia's flyable Tu-95 fleet likely did not exceed 28 aircraft. During Operation Spiderweb, at least six to eight Tu-95 bombers were reportedly damaged or destroyed. Notably, since the Ukrainian Security Service's operation, Russia has not used more than 18 Tu-95 bombers in a single missile attack.
Tu-95 fleet is wearing out
According to the aviation expert, Russia is now most likely operating no more than 12 Tu-95 bombers regularly. Several indicators suggest the aircraft are rapidly reaching the limits of their service life.
The bomber was originally designed to carry up to eight cruise missiles, but Russia has not launched more than four from a single aircraft in a long time. According to Kryvolap, carrying a heavier payload places excessive stress on the aircraft's wings, which were never designed for such sustained operational demands.
Russia cannot replace its strategic bomber fleet
Kryvolap said Russia cannot currently replenish its fleet of Tu-95 bombers.
The last newly built Tu-95 was produced in the early 1990s. Meanwhile, the Tu-160 bombers that Russia presents as new are, in reality, older airframes undergoing deep modernization rather than newly manufactured aircraft.
According to the latest estimates, modernizing a single Tu-160 takes Russia at least four years.
Earlier, reports suggested that Russia is developing a ground-launched version of the Kh-101 cruise missile, which is currently launched by Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers during attacks on Ukraine.
Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) also recently revealed the specifications and released images of Russia's latest Izdeliye-30 missile, which could potentially strike the entire territory of Ukraine.
