Analyst assesses whether Russia capable of breaking through front into Dnipropetrovsk region by May 9
Photo: Analyst assessed whether Russia is capable of breaking through the front into Dnipropetrovsk region by May 9 (Getty Images)
Russian troops will attempt to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region by May 9. The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, needs to demonstrate that Russia is breaking through the front and advancing into Ukrainian territory, states analyst and director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, Mykhailo Samus, in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
"There is no direct impact from the suspension of US aid on the frontline, because our critical dependence lies more in strategic matters — intelligence data, Patriot systems. Of course, there are issues such as maintenance of armored vehicles, supply of spare parts, and ammunition — they provide all that. But this doesn’t have an immediate effect. What is happening on the frontline now is the traditional influence of the May 9 'Victory Day hysteria,'" Samus said.
He noted that the Kremlin is constantly issuing orders to seize new Ukrainian territory because they need to showcase some kind of victory by May 9.
"Reaching Dnipropetrovsk region? Well, Russian troops have been stationed nearby for several months. They are about 4 kilometers from the Dnipropetrovsk region and still haven’t managed to cross that line," the analyst added.
According to him, from a military standpoint, this would not be a breakthrough and would not change the situation on the frontline.
"But from a purely propagandistic point of view, yes, it’s important for them to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region so that Trump can later say — see, we stopped the aid, and the Russians immediately entered another region, which they will then claim during negotiations. So from this perspective, the Russians will try to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region — this is happening near the Pokrovsk area," Samus said.
Therefore, in his view, the Russian forces will now try to create pressure on the frontline, as well as the illusion that they are beginning to break through the front, especially against the backdrop of the suspension of US aid.
"And this could even appear as coordinated action. The Americans suspend aid, and the Russians start striking our cities with ballistic missiles and ramping up their offensive across all fronts. They’re trying to show that without US support, Ukraine collapses. I’m confident that won’t happen, because there won’t be an immediate impact — the effect of cutting aid will be delayed," the analyst added.
Threat to the Dnipropetrovsk region
The Khortytsia Operational Strategic Grouping of Troops recently reported that the Russian army continues its attacks in the Pokrovsk direction in Donetsk region, attempting to break through to the administrative border with Dnipropetrovsk region. They aim to achieve this by May 9.
According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian forces are amassing forces for the offensive, which is why the number of assaults along the entire front line has decreased.
