Koreans make up just 2%. How North Korean troops strengthen Russia’s advance in Kursk region

Contents:

• How North Korea got involved in the Russia-Ukraine war
• What weapons does North Korea supply to Russia
• How North Korean troops fight against Ukraine
• What if there were no North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region

How North Korea got involved in the Russia-Ukraine war

The North Korean regime under Kim Jong Un openly supported Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 from the outset. A few months later, official Kyiv broke diplomatic relations with Pyongyang.

In 2022, Russia’s depleted stockpiles led Moscow to seek assistance. During this time, according to some estimates, at least 5 million artillery shells, short-range ballistic missiles, artillery systems, machine guns, and other weapons were delivered. For the first time, North Korean ballistic missiles were used against Ukraine late in 2023 and early 2024.

In June 2024, North Korea announced plans to send troops for engineering work in occupied areas of Donetsk. The same month, during Vladimir Putin's visit, the parties signed a strategic partnership agreement. In August, amid the Kursk operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, North Korea expressed its willingness to support Russia.

Photo: Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a strategic partnership agreement in June (kremlin.ru)

It later became known that the North Korean military presence in Donetsk was limited because a large number of the supplied ammunition was of poor quality. By October, reports emerged of the formation of a battalion for combat operations in the Kursk region.

"Our intelligence is tracking not only the transfer of weapons from North Korea to Russia but also the transfer of personnel. These are workers for Russian factories, replacing dead Russian soldiers, and troops for the Russian army," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in mid-October.

Western media, citing sources, also reported that North Korean pilots had arrived in Russia for training. However, the primary threat remains ground forces. According to Ukrainian sources, their numbers are estimated at 11-12,000.

In early November, North Korean forces engaged in their first battles with Ukraine’s Defense Forces. Since then, footage of dead North Korean soldiers has surfaced. Recently, it was reported that the first North Korean was captured, but today it became known that he was taken seriously wounded and died.

"According to preliminary reports, the number of killed and wounded North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region has already surpassed 3,000," Zelenskyy said earlier this week.

As The New York Times reports, for millions of artillery shells, howitzers, ballistic missiles, and multiple-launch rocket systems, Putin could have paid up to $5.5 billion. Through troop deployment, North Korea could earn up to $600 million annually, despite its total official exports last year amounting to only $330 million. In addition, Kim's regime receives oil, food, and necessary missile technology, while counting on Russian support in the future.

US intelligence agencies believe the idea of deploying North Korean troops on Russian soil came from Kim Jong Un, and Putin willingly supported it.

What weapons does North Korea supply to Russia?

Since the Korean War and its close ties with the Soviet Union, North Korea has gained numerous military technologies, which it has used to develop its defense industry and produce artillery shells of 122mm and 152mm calibers. These munitions are compatible with Russia’s artillery systems used in Ukraine. North Korean stockpiles are estimated at millions or even tens of millions of missiles. These are huge volumes that exceed the potential of supplies to Ukraine from the EU.

Since late 2023, Russia has started using short-range ballistic missiles, such as the KN-23 and KN-24 - roughly equivalent to Russia’s Iskander-M and US ATACMS. North Korea is believed to have supplied around 100 of these missiles.

Photo: North Korean ballistic missiles were used for the first time in combat conditions during the Russian-Ukrainian war (kcna.kp)

In November, Russia received 50 powerful 170mm self-propelled guns, M1989 Koksan, which can fire at distances of 35-45 km and are intended to enhance counter-battery operations against Ukraine’s PzH 2000 and CAESAR howitzers. Additionally, Russia received 20 units of 240mm multiple-launch rocket systems, Yuche 100 (analogous to Soviet Uragans).

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the main threat comes from artillery systems rather than infantry. "We are talking about the Koksan self-propelled guns that Russians are using on various parts of the front and in attacks on civilian areas near the frontlines. But we can say that it’s not Koreans operating the artillery, but Russians. The Koreans are used as cannon fodder," said a representative from Ukraine’s military intelligence.

The range of North Korean military support may be even wider. South Korean intelligence warns that North Korea could supply strike drones in the near future.

The Ukrainian portal Defense Express highlighted videos from Russia’s Tyumen region showing ballistic missile launchers for medium-range Pukguksong-2 (KN-15) missiles with a range of up to 2,000 km. Analysts suggest that North Korea may seek to test these missiles on the battlefield.

How North Korean troops fight against Ukraine

Thousands of North Korean soldiers help Russia advance in the Kursk region. The extent of their impact is uncertain, but by mid-December, they were actively involved in assault operations to the north, west, and east of the town of Sudzha, which remains under Ukrainian control.

"They are used as infantry without vehicles. They are not prepared to counter drones, leading to heavy losses. It seems the Russians didn’t inform the Koreans well about the use of UAVs, which shows that for Russians, Korean lives have no value," said Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council.

Kovalenko added that Russian tactics involve gathering North Korean forces in wooded areas and sending them to assault narrow areas in several directions simultaneously. The task is to run between the attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and try to take certain positions. "As for their qualitative abilities, they are infantrymen with Soviet weapons who run forward. The enemy should not be underestimated, but they are dying and we should not believe in horror stories," Kovalenko said.

North Korean fighters on the battlefield act recklessly, according to Russian prisoners of war, whose interrogation footage was exclusively obtained by RBC-Ukraine. The North Korean troops are trained separately from Russian forces, with a greater focus on practical drills. At the frontline, they are stationed in separate dugouts and are sent into assaults first, drawing fire before Russian soldiers advance behind them. One captured Russian soldier described the North Koreans as reckless people who don’t care where they go.

North Korean soldiers are heavily indoctrinated by propaganda. They have reportedly never been exposed to smartphones or free media, making Ukrainian efforts to persuade them to surrender, such as "drop your weapons and join us," unlikely to succeed. "They are far from their homeland and are not ready to leave their only ‘island of safety,’" explains military expert Pavlo Narozhnyy.

Based on the reported number of 11,000 troops, this constitutes roughly two combined-arms brigades. There is no evidence to suggest they brought tanks, armored personnel carriers, or other heavy equipment with them.

"Three generals came to command them. One of them was injured during our Storm Shadow strike. Having three generals for two brigades is excessive and indicates they are there to learn," Narozhnyy noted.

According to him, the primary objective of the North Korean troops is to gain experience in real combat scenarios in modern warfare. However, their effectiveness at this stage is very limited, particularly due to the language barrier.

"According to Russian war correspondents, they have one translator for 50-100 troops. So, if you take two infantry platoons, one moves with the translator, while the other goes without. How can they fight like this? Not understanding what is happening on the battlefield, without information from UAVs or other intelligence sources? I have no idea how to fight in such conditions," Narozhnyi told RBC-Ukraine.

There is speculation that North Korean troops are "saving" Russia's offensive in the Kursk region, but the expert disagrees. According to him, taking into account the losses, 7-8 thousand soldiers with no experience of war with drones, heavy artillery, and minefields can exert some pressure, but not decisive. Moreover, the situation there remains relatively stable. Ukrainian forces have not retreated due to intense pressure but rather to occupy better defensive positions and create a buffer zone 1.5 kilometers wide.

"The enemy must cover these 1.5 kilometers to reach our positions. Doing so under constant fire is almost impossible. When groups of 30-40 soldiers come out to an open ground, they become easy targets for machine gunners, not even for drone operators or artillery. Yes, the North Koreans will learn. This is only the first wave; they will gain experience and may eventually become effective. But for now, they are on the level of ordinary infantry, perhaps a little more motivated," Narozhnyy added.

What if there were no North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region

By mid-December, Ukraine had lost control of approximately half the territories it held in the Kursk region as of August. According to The Economist, setbacks began in late September when elite units of the Defense Forces were replaced by less battle-hardened troops.

Initially, well-trained brigades of the Airborne Assault Forces advanced in the Kursk region.

"When we advanced, it was like a knife through butter - we advanced very deeply and stretched so far that we had to set up logistical bases in the rear on the newly occupied territory. Then came the task of clearing the rear, while the enemy regrouped and began counterattacks. The first brigades were replaced by others to hold the defense. These troops are still holding the line but have retreated to more favorable positions. So, the North Koreans played no role in the Russian offensive," explained military expert Pavlo Narozhnyy.

In reality, the presence of over 10,000 North Korean troops has not fundamentally changed the situation. Just as nothing would have changed without them. Ukrainian estimates suggest that a total of 550,000 to 600,000 enemy soldiers are active in the occupied territories and the Kursk region. "This means the North Koreans make up just 2%. How can 2% significantly affect anything?" the expert questioned.

The only possible scenario is that they receive a baptism of fire similar to the Wagner Group.

"When they first appeared, they were just convicts. Nobody kept count of them; they were thrown into countless assaults, and around 80-90% of them died. But 10-20% gained experience, were well-armed, and became an effective strike force. If the North Koreans go through this ‘crucible,’ they could become a strike force too. Their generals will also learn, return home, conduct some training, and the next wave of North Koreans sent to war may be much more powerful," Narozhnyy emphasized.

Sources: Material from The New York Times, Financial Times, The Economist; statements by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council Andriy Kovalenko, and comments by military expert Pavlo Narozhnyy.