Vuhledar siege threat and Ukrainian intelligence's success in Vovchansk: Frontline overview

In recent weeks, the situation on the battlefield has remained consistently difficult. Russian troops are slowly but steadily advancing in key areas, seeking to achieve their main operational objectives to date - to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

At the same time, Russia puts pressure on other areas, growing its flanks. By and large, the Russian occupiers here can be called opportunists who are trying to seize what they can. However, it is impossible to attack equally intensively everywhere - both general fatigue and lack of resources, some of which were still taken in the Kursk direction, play a role. That is why the Russian command has chosen several key objectives and is striving to achieve them before the cold weather.

Vuhledar - critical situation in city's defense

The most difficult situation today is near Vuhledar, which Russian troops are trying to capture and have achieved some tactical success. Ukrainian troops have been holding and strengthening this front line for about two years, but the Russian army has deployed many forces in this area and is trying to surround the Ukrainian military from the flanks.

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War note that on September 24, the Russian occupiers advanced east of Vuhledar and are trying to advance on the northeastern flank through Vodiane and on the southwestern flank through Prechystivka. The Russian army is trying to either squeeze out the Ukrainian units or surround them.

The ISW writes if the Ukrainian command decides that the risk of encirclement of Vuhledar by Russian troops or the cost of defending the settlement itself in urban combat is too high, Ukrainian troops may retreat. However, if Ukrainian forces decide to defend Vuhledar and can prevent Russian attempts to encircle it, they may retreat. The ISW notes that it may be difficult for Russian troops to break through a settlement that Ukrainian troops have been fortifying for more than two years.

On September 25, the American Forbes reported that the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade named after the Black Zaporozhians could begin a tactical withdrawal from Vuhledar to more secure positions. Military analysts say the situation in the city is critical. Russian troops, as usual, are capturing it, effectively wiping it off the map. At the same time, Vuhledar is very convenient for defense because it is on a high ground.

An analyst with the Ukrainian group Frontelligence Insight states that the situation in Vuhledar is critical, and it is likely they are witnessing the final stages of its defense. The analyst expresses hope that the correct orders have been given, prioritizing the lives of soldiers over the desire to hold the position.

The Russians attacked Vuhledar repeatedly over two years, suffering heavy losses. The Russian command spared neither human resources nor weapons to achieve their goal. More globally, their plan may look like this: the Russian occupiers planned to attack the Kharkiv region as the northernmost point of the Donetsk region, and Vuhledar as the southernmost point. In its attempts, the Russian army sought to stretch the Ukrainian Armed Forces as much as possible, says Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military Legal Studies.

“Vuhledar is under siege from two sides, so to speak. Russia attacked constantly, but Ukrainian forces repelled them and inflicted damage. Russia was successful on the western flank. When they broke through it a little bit, it became obvious that Russia was breaking through directly to Vuhledar, and the moment was coming when Ukrainian troops would most likely have to leave there so as not to give Russia any gifts in the form of encirclement,” Musiienko says in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldier in Zaporizhzhia region (photo: Getty Images)

Not everyone agrees that the capture of Vuhledar by Russian troops was a matter of time. There are still battles for the city, and the settlement itself is not in an operational cordon. At the same time, people still live in Vuhledar. Even if the Russian army manages to capture Vuhledar, it will not give them any special tactical or operational advantages, ISW analysts are sure.

Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Toretsk are the hottest spots on frontline

The Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk directions are currently the scene of the most intense fighting. In one day, Russia attacked Ukrainian units near Kurakhove dozens of times, both with artillery and direct head-on assaults. In total, there are about 60-80 combat engagements in these two frontline areas per day, with about 150 total engagements on the frontline per day.

In the Pokrovsk sector, the actions of the Russian army are no different from those of six months ago. They attack individual units with a fairly high intensity - about 20 soldiers per attack. In recent days, however, Russian troops have begun using a large number of armored vehicles, including modernized tanks and BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles.

In order not to lose the intensity of the fighting, the Russians have even created a separate grouping of troops called Center. It includes the main forces of the Central Military District, a significant part of the 1st Army Corps, and a separate tank division. For these rather narrow areas, these are large-scale forces and difficult to maintain even in defense.

As the Russian army develops its offensive, it is trying to gain a foothold in certain areas, but it is not possible to quickly build fortifications - Russia is quite vulnerable and the front line is constantly changing. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are partially counterattacking, snatching certain areas from Russian invaders, but in general, the Ukrainian military has not yet been able to retaliate on a large scale. This is due to a general lack of resources, both equipment and ammunition.

By increasing the intensity of the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, Russia is pursuing a fairly simple task: it needs to cut off the Myrnohrad-Kramatorsk road, cut off a large group of Ukrainian troops holding the line near Chasiv Yar, and, accordingly, cut off the supply line. And it runs along the road to Sloviansk.

Pokrovsk is of key importance for the defense of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and the villages adjacent to Bakhmut, and it is the route that is needed to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The situation is the same in Kurakhove, which is considered one of the logistics hubs and is also located at an important transportation interchange.

Although the situation in Pokrovsk and Kurakhove is quite difficult, according to some military experts, the Russian army has an advantage, but it is still not decisive. Otherwise, they would have captured the city by now, says military analyst Pavlo Narozhnyy.

“Yes, the dynamics are not in our favor. But if they had a decisive advantage, they would have already been in Pokrovsk, for some reason they are not in Pokrovsk. They are storming a small village with a few hundred residents,” Narozhnyy says in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.

Difficult situation in Kharkiv sector and Defense Intelligence of Ukraine's success in Vovchansk

The situation in the Kharkiv sector is also not good. Russia has achieved some tactical success by making several jerks. The Russian occupiers regularly reinforced their assaults with guided aerial bombs. As a result, they have recently managed to capture the village of Pishchane and advance to the Oskil River.

The Russians are a few kilometers from the river bank, and as they advance, they cut the Ukrainian Defense Forces in half and take control of the logistics route towards Kupiansk, namely, Borova-Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi highway, which is being actively shelled by the Russian army.

To the south, the Russians captured Nevske village near Makiivka, which allowed them to force the Chornyi Zherebets River and cross to the right bank, says Volodymyr Fokin, commander of the 1st assault battalion of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“Russia receives up to a thousand newly arrived fighters per division every week, who immediately start assaulting 2 to 1. That is, the advantage is on their side, unfortunately,” Fokin says.

Meanwhile, in the north of the Kharkiv region, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine's fighters managed to seize the territory of an aggregate plant in Vovchansk. According to the military and analysts, this is the first such operation since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. The Ukrainian military managed to storm the facility, which was used by the Russian army as a large fortified area.

A Ukrainian soldier (photo: Getty Images)

“It was a rather complicated operation. As far as I know, it was the first operation in a large-scale war in which a team of special forces stormed an object of this level. Because, by and large, this is still more of a task for line infantry brigades supported by artillery,” says Alexander with call-sign "Fortuna", Chief of Staff of the Russian Volunteer Corps.

Since the territory of the plant resembles a huge fortress that can be seen from the sky from all sides, the Ukrainian command decided to use the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine and Russian Volunteer Corps fighters. The military eliminated most of the Russian troops stationed there but still captured some of the personnel. Thus, Ukrainian soldiers managed to gain a foothold at one of the most important points and prevented the Russian army from organizing a full-fledged bridgehead there for a further offensive south of Vovchansk and the capture of the city in general.

Space Forces in Kursk region

Even though Russia is trying its best to pretend that the Kursk operation had no impact on the front, which in itself sounds strange, the situation looks somewhat different. The media periodically discusses rumors that Vladimir Putin may soon declare mobilization due to a lack of forces. That is why he has increased the number of units in the Russian army.

However, so far this has not happened, and the Russian Ministry of Defense continues to buy up contractors for 30 thousand dollars, and the Russian command is looking for all possible unused reserves for defense and possible counteroffensive in the Kursk region. The military space and air force have already been deployed there, and they have been enlisted as motorized riflemen. They were sent to the infantry, taken directly from the airfields in the Altai Krai, Irkutsk, and Saratov regions, where Tu-22M and Tu-95 are deployed.

In addition, the forces of the Leningrad Military District and partially of the Moscow Military District were transferred to the Kursk region. Because these units have been restored relatively recently through the reformatting of other districts, the composition of the groups and their organization is quite unstable. It can be said that the Russian General Staff, in an effort not to lose the intensity of fighting in the occupied territories, is accumulating poorly trained and frankly unprepared reserves in its region.

“They have resources in one direction, but they cannot attack in all directions. They've already abandoned the space marines, the military space forces. Now they have abandoned the crew of their only aircraft carrier. This indicates a lack of manpower,” Narozhnyy says.

Apparently, due to the lack of manpower, the Russian army was unable to defend one of the frontline areas, so a separate Polissia air assault brigade made a breakthrough and destroyed Russia's point there.

But the situation at the front remains very difficult. The enemy spares no ammunition and regularly shells the combat zone and nearby settlements with multiple rocket launchers. Explosions are heard almost daily in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions. However, the approaching meteorological autumn and deteriorating weather conditions may play into the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and give them time for a tactical break.

“Yes, it is very difficult there. But by the end of the month, we open the weather forecast and see that we are starting to get rain. This means the end of the summer campaign. It will be much harder for them (Russians, ed.),” Narozhnyy adds.