Striking deep: What Ukraine gains from US approval to use Western long-range weapons against Russia

For almost 3 years, Russia has been attacking Ukraine with long-range missiles. The Russians have been hitting Ukrainian cities with virtually everything they have, including Kh-101 missiles with a range of over 5,000 kilometers.

Russia is also using foreign-made components and weapons in its war against Ukraine, for instance, Iranian Shahed-136 drones that have been attacking Ukrainian targets since September 2022.

In other words, Russia itself does not adhere to any lines, using virtually everything in the war with Ukraine except nuclear weapons. On the other hand, Kyiv, to achieve parity on the battlefield and fight back with quality, if not quantity, constantly asks its Western allies to provide the Ukrainian army with military equipment and ammunition.

One of the critical issues that has been discussed for almost all three years of the full-scale Russia's war is the permission to fire long-range missiles into Russian territory. Initially, Ukraine's partners did not want to provide long-range rockets at all, and then, having provided them in small numbers, they forbade their use in Russia - only on the Ukrainian territories occupied by it. While the Russian Armed Forces used Ukraine as a testing ground, testing almost all types of missiles, Kyiv responded with drones of its production.

It was only at the end of his presidential term that Joe Biden authorized the use of ATACMS missiles on Russian territory, which immediately led to identical authorizations from the UK and France for Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles. In Russia, this expectedly caused a wave of indignation, threats, and as a result, the use of an intercontinental missile on Dnipro. While Moscow is testing its Oreshnik, Ukraine is marking new targets for strikes on the Russian map.

Western long-range and Russian non-nuclear response

Ukraine has long asked its allies for long-range missiles. In 2023, they were handed over - first ATACMS, then Storm Shadow/Scalp, but it was strictly forbidden to use them to hit Russian territories.

Both the United States and Europe unanimously declared their fear of escalation. Meanwhile, Russia has been shelling the entire Ukrainian territory since the first days of the full-scale war, and in June 2022, it used Kh-101 missiles for the first time, attacking Kyiv. Russian ammunition has repeatedly reached Ukraine's border with Poland and Romania and occasionally has landed on the territory of other states.

Despite constant attempts to test the West's patience, the turning point for Kyiv's foreign allies was the North Korean military, which Russia decided to deploy at the front. In mid-November, many Western media outlets reported that the White House had authorized the use of long-range weapons. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially reacted to the wave of information about this rather ambiguously, not confirming the permission to strike deep into Russia: “Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves.”

Soon after, it became known that Ukraine had already hit Russia with ATACMS missiles. According to RBC-Ukraine's source in the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the strike hit a military facility near the city of Karachov, Bryansk region, which is 130 km from the border.

ATACMS missile (photo: flickr.com)

Another attack took place on November 25, this time on the Khalino airfield in the Kursk region, as reported by local propagandists, and later confirmed by the governor of the region, Alexei Smirnov.

At the same time, the public began to calculate how many Storm Shadow missiles Ukraine would receive for strikes deep into Russia. According to military expert Serhii Hrabskyi, it is about several dozen missiles that will be enough to launch several missile strikes on various targets in Russia.

Even at the stage of rumors about the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western long-range missiles, the Kremlin rushed out dozens of statements of varying degrees of threat. First, Vladimir Putin abruptly mentioned the nuclear doctrine, which had been discussed back in September but was successfully forgotten.

The changes that Putin decided to make concerned the use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state if a nuclear state assists it or if a non-nuclear state attacks Russia by various means. The fact that Ukraine has been bombing Russia with its drones for more than a year now is probably also forgotten in Moscow. However, as soon as the West hinted and then explicitly stated that they were allowing Ukraine to strike Russia, the Russian dictator signed amendments to the doctrine in response. But there was no reaction from the West.

Seeing that attempts to raise the stakes with the threat of nuclear war had failed once again, Russia decided to use another trump card. On November 21, Russia launched an intercontinental missile down Dnipro. On the same day, Putin said that he had attacked Ukraine with the latest Oreshnik range system, and the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reported that the strike was most likely caused by a ballistic missile from the Kedr missile system, which was tested in October. 2023, and there is nothing new about this system. At the same time, several media outlets reported that the Dnipro was hit by a modification of the RS-26 Rubezh missile, which did not have a warhead.

Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)

Oreshnik, Kedr, or Rubezh, despite the Kremlin's desperate attempts to create terror, did not frighten either the West or Ukraine itself. For Ukrainians, this move meant that they had one more missile, and their foreign partners said that Putin had failed to raise the stakes. A few days after the attack on Dnipro, the G-7 countries said in a joint statement that Russia's strike on Dnipro with the Kedr ballistic missile proves its reckless behavior.

But Putin kept trying to escalate the situation, so on November 28, he announced that he would strike the decision-making centers in Kyiv with Oreshnik. By the way, this statement came after another Russia's massive attack on Ukrainian energy facilities, which this time was dedicated to attacks on Russia itself.

Putin also said that a strike with a new missile would be comparable to a nuclear strike, and paid special attention to describing how everything that will be at the epicenter of the explosion will be divided into fractions, elementary particles, and turn into dust. His words were immediately ridiculed by experts, who pointed out that for a nuclear charge, the Oreshnik missile must carry hundreds of tons of explosives, which is physically impossible.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately reacted to Putin's threats, emphasizing that the use of the Oreshnik was nothing more than an attempt to disrupt the peace efforts of US President-elect Donald Trump.

“He blackmails with his Oreshnik now to disrupt President Trump's efforts, which will take place after the inauguration,” Zelenskyy emphasized.

While Russia is trying in vain to find new ways to escalate the war without using nuclear weapons, Ukraine will continue to hit Russia with Western missiles.

How long-range missiles will help

All three types of missiles that Ukraine has been allowed to use to hit Russia are actually short-range - ATACMS can hit a maximum of 300 km, and Storm Shadow/Scalp can hit 250 to 500 depending on the modification, but Ukraine has most likely been given missiles with a range of 250 km, and there is no official information on this.

After Ukraine was allowed to strike at Russia, Western media published a map showing where a long-range Western missile could reach at most. Back in August, the Institute for the Study of War reported that there were about 250 Russian military facilities in the ATACMS defeat zone, including ammunition depots, and military airfields with units, headquarters, and manpower concentrations. And as soon as Ukraine officially expanded this radius, it hit these targets, said Ben Hodges, an American general and former commander of the US Army in Europe.

“Ukraine is already hitting the right targets such as ammunition storage sites and headquarters. I also like to see the continued targeting of Russian facilities in Crimea, the decisive terrain of this war, in order to make it untenable for Russian forces. That is the first step towards the liberation of Crimea...making it untenable, then isolating it...which will come with the destruction of the Crimean Bridge,” the expert said in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.

In turn, analysts at the Institute of War Studies note that the Ukrainian military can also weaken the Russian air defense system and hit the vulnerable Russian rear.

Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles (photo: Getty Images)

"Long-range strike permissions are necessary for enabling Ukraine to degrade Russian air defenses, conduct more effective strike packages in Russia, and strike the vulnerable Russian rear staging areas,” ISW said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

It is unlikely that this will help stop or reduce the number of massive attacks on Ukraine - Western missiles will not reach the airfields where the Russian Armed Forces deploy their aircraft. But it will help push back the Russian rear and, accordingly, slow down and complicate various logistical processes - supplying troops, evacuating them, repairing equipment, etc.

At the same time, the decision to lift Ukraine's restrictions on the use of long-range weapons is unlikely to be a game changer. Missiles of this range will not be able to change the course of the war and give the Ukrainian Armed Forces an advantage at the front - they will only push back the rear of Russian troops.

“The only game-changer would be a declaration of Ukrainian victory as America’s strategic objective. No single weapon system platform or policy is a game changer. However, the approval of Ukrainian use of ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and SCALP against targets inside Russia is an important step forward which gives Ukraine much greater capability to destroy Russian headquarters, logistics, and artillery which will degrade Russia’s advantage of mass,” Hodges said.

This is also the opinion of anonymous Western diplomats in Kyiv, cited by the BBC. They call this decision rather symbolic: “I don't think it will be a decisive factor. But this symbolic decision shows military support for Ukraine. In addition, it (the decision - ed.) could be costly for Russia.”

As for Putin's response, Western experts are also unanimous in their opinion: the Oreshnik strikes on Dnipro, the signing of nuclear doctrines, and constant threats are nothing more than the Kremlin's hysteria in an attempt to make the West scared and reverse its decision. And the motivation for these actions is quite simple - fear.

“The use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile against Dnipro was intended to scare the West, to raise concerns that Russia was moving towards use of a nuclear weapon. I don’t believe that Russia will use a nuclear weapon. But it does reveal that Russia dreads Ukraine having the permission to use ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and Scalp inside Russian territory,” Hodges said.

Allowing Ukraine to hit Russia with long-range missiles is indeed necessary, but in the current situation, it seems a bit late. The situation in the active combat zone remains extremely difficult, the Russians are advancing slowly but surely in key areas, and it will be increasingly difficult to hold the Kursk region. Russia is sparing no resources for the war, sending tons of ammunition and tens of thousands of people there.

In this situation, Western missile attacks on Russian targets are important, but they are unlikely to change the course of the war. Especially given that the radius of attack is still small compared to what Russia can reach.

Ukraine was the first country struck by intercontinental ballistics, and no matter how ridiculous the name Oreshnik sounds, the very fact that it was used suggests that Moscow is ready for a lot, if not everything. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about the West's willingness to help Ukraine in any way it can.