Storm and pressure. How Trump 'pushing for peace' with Ukraine, Russia, and Europe

Contents

• Diplomatic inclusiveness or broadening the framework
• From abstractions to specifics
• Haste and tactical miscalculations

Since his inauguration, Donald Trump has been working in turbo mode. He has been changing the United States internally at breakneck speed, trying to get concessions from key American allies. And the US president is doing the same about ending Russia's war against Ukraine. On the one hand, this has indeed already yielded the first results, but on the other hand, this approach has created problems for Ukraine and Europe.

Diplomatic inclusiveness or broadening the framework

Even before his inauguration, Trump appointed retired General Keith Kellogg as the special representative for Ukraine and Russia to end the war. However, for a long time, neither he nor other members of Trump's team, despite numerous meetings with Ukrainian counterparts, had a vision of how to end the war.

Earlier, Trump had said that peace would be achieved in 24 hours, but later Kellogg shifted the time frame to 100 days. And on February 15, Kellogg said 180 days to engage all sides. But despite the shifts in dates, Kellogg and company did not sit idly by. New players were brought into the negotiations, and they now cover a wider range of issues.

Two separate people became responsible for US contacts with Ukraine and Russia. Keith Kellogg continues to communicate with Ukraine. Trump's special representative for the Middle East, Steven Witkoff, is in charge of Russia. It is not known exactly when he started working on Russia, but on February 12, Witkoff flew to Moscow to pick up American hostage Marc Fogel, who was being held by Putin's regime. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump's National Security Advisor Mike Waltz were involved in the talks in their official capacities.

The topics that will be included in the future agreement to end the war have also been expanded. On the Ukrainian side, it is about rare earth metals and other critical elements that the US needs. Presumably, the business wing in Trump's environment insisted on signing such an agreement as soon as possible - at the Munich Security Conference on February 14-16. However, the Ukrainian leadership ensured that the agreement was properly finalized, in particular in terms of security guarantees for Ukraine.

On the Russian side, it is about cooperation in the sphere of economy and investment, as well as in issues of common geopolitical interest. It is noteworthy that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Putin's foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, and the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev participated in the direct talks between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia.

At least the Trump team engaged players not directly involved in the war, Europe, in discussions of the contours of peace during the American leaders' big European tour. At the same time, Keith Kellogg openly stated that Europe would not be present during direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Saudi Arabia is also involved, both as a negotiating platform and as a party that can reduce oil prices as a means of putting pressure on Russia.

From abstractions to specifics

Last week, the US's backroom talks with Ukraine and Russia went public. The US President first spoke with Vladimir Putin and then informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about the conversation. At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Bessent visited Kyiv to promote the rare earth metals agreement. The agreement was also discussed during a meeting between Zelenskyy and US Vice President J.D. Vance on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. However, according to numerous RBC-Ukraine sources, there was mostly talk about talk in Munich, without much specificity.

The subsequent talks between the United States and Russia in Saudi Arabia, under the auspices of the heads of diplomatic departments, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, were also largely general. However, there were also substantive agreements on the normalization of diplomatic missions, as well as the appointment of responsible persons on both sides “to begin work on ending the conflict as soon as possible.”

Kyiv, according to Zelenskyy, was unaware of the content of these talks. “Ukraine considers any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine to be futile. And we cannot recognize any things or any agreements about us without us,” Zelenskyy said on February 18.

Moreover, in a diplomatic gesture, President Zelenskyy postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia, where the US and Russia had previously held talks.

Keith Kellogg and the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andrii Yermak (photo: OP press service)

At the same time, Keith Kellogg arrived in Kyiv on February 19. He will stay in Kyiv for 3 days and will have a series of meetings with the Ukrainian leadership and a trip to the frontline. Just as in Saudi Arabia, the United States talked to Russia without Ukraine, in Kyiv, the American envoy talks without Russia. Although Kellogg himself emphasized immediately upon arrival that his main task would be to listen.

Haste and tactical miscalculations

Along with negotiations at various levels, the American leadership is broadcasting many warning messages that will ward off the spirit of Russian propaganda. On the evening of February 18, Donald Trump said at a briefing outside Kyiv that he liked Zelenskyy, but there is a leadership in Ukraine that allowed the war to continue. According to Trump, Zelenskyy's approval rating has dropped to 4%.

Trump said that he thought if they sat down at the table, the Ukrainian people would already decide that there had been no elections for a long time. He added that it was not Russia telling Ukraine that it needed elections, but rather an objective situation

On February 19, Trump repeated his theses, calling Zelenskyy a “dictator without elections.”

Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the US president's statements disinformation. “Since we are talking about 4%, we have seen this disinformation. We have seen it coming from Russia. We have evidence that these figures are being discussed between America and Russia,” Zelenskyy said.

Trump's statements may be due to his lack of understanding of the depth of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, in a broad sense, or they may be part of the aforementioned snark tactics. After all, this was the case with the “end of the war in 24 hours”. At the same time, this creates additional challenges for Ukraine - not only because of the escalation of the domestic political confrontation but also in the context of negotiations.

“This is Trump's style. He makes huge claims to everyone. And even to his allies, he is sometimes much more harsh than to the enemies of the United States. But on the other hand, in this way, he gives Putin hope that he will succeed, because Putin wanted to talk about Ukraine with America, and without Europe,” Oleksandr Leonov, executive director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, told RBC-Ukraine.

The US leadership has previously stated that negotiations with Russia should be conducted from a position of strength. But the problem is that Trump is weakening Ukraine's position with such statements. And this is not the first time. During his European tour last week, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth threw away two trump cards that could have been used in negotiations with Russia: Ukraine's NATO membership and returning to the 2014 borders. In general, the rush to end the war could play a cruel joke on the United States.

“Trump's attempts to act in such a tough manner are more likely to destroy opportunities for reaching any agreements than to bring them closer. Because the only person who can stop the war is Putin. Everything depends on him. And if you give Putin the hope that he can win, I think Putin will look for opportunities to continue to put pressure on Ukraine and Europe,” Leonov is convinced.

In this situation, the Ukrainian leadership has to establish communication with the United States and counter Russian attempts to seize the initiative in the negotiations. Another important area of work concerns cooperation with European countries. But so far, Europe itself is at a loss.

Sources: Ukrainian and American politicians, Bloomberg, Fox News, Reuters, Politico, The New York Post, and Oleksandr Leonov, Executive Director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies.