Kupiansk update and risk of Ukraine losing city: Expert's assessment

Contents

• What is current situation in Kupiansk
• Is there risk for Ukraine to lose city
• Why is Kupiansk strategically important

What is current situation in Kupiansk

Yesterday, the Ukrainian General Staff reported an attempted Russian breakthrough in Kupiansk, with assault groups attacking in four waves, deploying around 15 units of equipment, including tanks, armored vehicles, and a UR-77 mine-clearing system.

In addition, some Russian soldiers were dressed in Ukrainian Armed Forces military uniforms, which is a violation of laws and customs of war, as well as a war crime.

According to the General Staff, Ukrainian forces managed to repel the attack, destroy all enemy armored vehicles, and eliminate a significant amount of the Russian manpower.

However, later reports from the Ukrainian monitoring project DeepState indicated that Russian forces had managed to enter Kupiansk, with two enemy columns advancing from Lyman Pershyi toward the Svatove-Kupiansk route.

Photo: DeepState marked the enemy's advance near Kupiansk on the map (deepstatemap)

"One MT-LB (multi-purpose, fully amphibious, tracked armored fighting vehicle – ed.) was hit in the forest. Another MT-LB managed to reach the area around Svatovska Street without obstruction, where it was then struck. Approximately 15 occupiers poured out of it and then hid in nearby houses," analysts reported.

This morning, the Head of the Kupiansk City Military Administration, Andrii Besedin, informed the publication Dumka that the Russian paratroopers who had infiltrated Kupiansk were eliminated. According to him, the situation in the city is under control, and the enemy, who had broken through to the left bank of Kupiansk, was unable to gain a foothold.

A similar statement was made by Andrii Kovalenko, Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. He confirmed that reports claiming the enemy had entrenched in Kupiansk were unfounded.

"There was an attempted enemy advance, but the Russians were destroyed. As of this morning, the situation is under the control of the Defense Forces," Kovalenko added.

Ukraine's General Staff also denied any Russian military presence in Kupiansk.

"Yesterday, Ukrainian forces halted the enemy's advance on Kupiansk, destroyed all their armored vehicles, and eliminated a significant amount of their manpower. Kupiansk remains fully under the control of Ukraine's Defense Forces," the statement said.

According to the General Staff’s reports, the number of combat clashes in the Kupiansk direction has increased, signaling a clear intensification of enemy activity along this part of the frontline. The heightened situation in this area is not a recent development.

In mid-October, a mandatory evacuation was announced for residents of Kupiansk and three other communities "due to the worsening military situation." This autumn, Russian forces managed to draw closer to the city, and Kupiansk itself has been under constant shelling.

Is there risk for Ukraine to lose city

Military expert Pavlo Narozhnyy notes that the Kupiansk-Lyman direction has now become the second most active front after the Pokrovsk-Kurakhiv area, with significant escalation by Russian forces. Enemy troops' activity is quite serious here.

"Why has this happened? There are two main reasons. First, it's an attempt by the Russians to get behind the defenders holding the Kharkiv region. Second, they aim to cut off the road leading to Sloviansk, which runs along the current front line," Narozhnyy explained.

However, he believes that the current situation in Kupiansk has not reached a point where Russian forces could cross the Oskil River, which divides the city in two.

"They've reached the Oskil in one area, which does pose a threat of splitting the Ukrainian forces in two. But crossing the river would be a challenging operation; it would require building pontoon bridges or using boats, which is very difficult to accomplish," Narozhnyy said.

He also pointed out that most Russian attempts to set up pontoon bridges have been unsuccessful, as these bridges are consistently destroyed.

"There’s currently no real threat (losing the city – ed.). While there are assaults, this doesn't mean they (Russians – ed.) can break through and capture the city. The enemy's movement speed is quite slow across all frontline areas," Narozhnyy emphasized.

The expert reminded that there have been no rapid breakthroughs on the battlefield for a while now. The last significant breakthrough occurred when Ukraine's Defense Forces broke through the Russian frontline in 2022.

"Therefore, at present, I don’t see any threat of the enemy quickly breaking into Kupiansk. The situation is undoubtedly challenging, but I don't foresee the city's fall. For instance, the enemy is attempting to storm Chasiv Yar, where a dried-up canal is proving to be a barrier they can't cross. And here, we're talking about a river (the Oskil– ed.)," the military expert concluded.

Photo: The Oskil River divides Kupiansk into right-bank and left-bank parts (google.com/maps)

Why is Kupiansk strategically important

Before Russia's full-scale war, Ukrainian Kupiansk was home to tens of thousands of people. It stands as the second-largest railway hub in the Kharkiv region after the city of Kharkiv, situated just 40 kilometers from the Russian border.

Kupiansk serves as a crucial hub for rail and road traffic, with several highways and five railway lines passing through it. At the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, Russian forces managed to take control of the city. However, in September 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Kupiansk during the Slobozhanskyi counteroffensive, pushing the enemy far to the east beyond the Oskil River.

This liberation had significant importance, as Kupiansk plays a key role in military logistics. Russian forces had previously used the city to transfer military personnel and supplies from Russia's Belgorod region to their units operating around Izium.

Sources used: reports from the General Staff of Ukraine, data from DeepState, statements by the Head of the Kupiansk Military Administration, Andrii Besedin, and the Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, Andrii Kovalenko, as well as an exclusive comment from military expert Pavlo Narozhnyy.