Global water wars: Who's at risk and could Ukraine be next?

Key questions:

• How is Russia using water to pressure Ukraine?
• Why is water becoming a weapon across the world?
• Where could full-scale wars over water begin?
• How are droughts forcing entire populations to abandon their land, and what risks does this pose to neighboring countries?

A young willow forest near Kherson is already three meters tall, growing on the dry bed of a former reservoir. It's been just two years since Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. That explosion triggered the largest man-made environmental disaster in Europe since World War II. It reshaped the lower basin of the Dnipro River and disrupted the local economy. It also put the water supply of several Ukrainian cities at risk.

This disaster was another clear sign that Russia is willing to go to any lengths to achieve its aggressive goals against Ukraine. It also served as a wake-up call. Many Ukrainians have long seen water as an abundant resource. But even in Ukraine's temperate climate, life without water is nearly impossible.

At the same time, Ukraine's water crisis has direct global implications, particularly for Africa and the Middle East. Irrigation systems fed by the Kakhovka Reservoir once provided water to about 584,000 hectares of farmland. In 2021, these fields produced 4 million tons of grain and oilseeds, much of which was destined for export. But after the dam was destroyed, irrigation virtually ceased. Crop yields are now entirely dependent on rainfall.

Ultimately, it's important to remember that Russia and Belarus control the headwaters of the Dnipro River. In theory, they could try to restrict the flow or contaminate it. This already happened in August of last year, when a Russian factory dumped tons of ammonium nitrogen, phosphates, and manganese into the Seym River, a Dnipro tributary.

Aftermath of the Kakhovka dam explosion (photo: Getty Images)

Ukraine is not alone in facing this kind of threat. Around the world, many river basins are shared by multiple countries. And in these regions, the temptation often arises to claim water that should rightfully go to others. As climate change brings more frequent and severe droughts, these situations are becoming increasingly common. There is less and less water, while the demand for it continues to grow, whether for drinking, agriculture, or electricity production. "Water wars" are no longer science fiction. They are now a global reality.

India and Pakistan: Water as a tool of pressure

On May 4, India closed the floodgates of the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River. This immediately caused water levels downstream to drop. For the first time in years, locals were able to walk along the dry riverbed. Some even searched for coins and jewelry on the exposed bottom.

Just three days after the gates were shut, nuclear-armed India and Pakistan exchanged strikes on military facilities. The confrontation did not escalate to the use of nuclear warheads, but the scale of the clashes was serious. Although the immediate cause was a terrorist attack, India quickly leveraged one of its key advantages — cutting off water. For Pakistan, water is a critical issue.

The Chenab is a tributary of the Indus, one of the world's largest rivers. It originates in India but flows mostly through Pakistan. And in Pakistan, the situation was taken extremely seriously. Despite some confusion in naming conventions, the Indus is of secondary importance for India. But for Pakistan, losing access to it would be existential.

Roughly 90% of Pakistan's population — over 170 million people — relies on the Indus for drinking water. Its system irrigates around 90% of the country's farmland, employing a third of the population. In addition, hydropower plants on the Indus generate about one-fifth of the country’s electricity.

"If we talk about China, India, and Pakistan, the key factor is extreme population density. In those regions, the issues of access to drinking water and even basic sanitation and hygiene draw special attention to how water is distributed and monitored, especially in terms of how it is used upstream," Leonid Bytsyura, Acting Head of the Department of Ecology and Health Care at West Ukrainian National University, a member of the International Water Association, of the Ukrainian Water Association, of the Dniester River Basin Council.

India couldn't hold back the water for long — it lacks sufficient reservoir capacity. So once tensions eased, the floodgates were reopened. However, the Indus Waters Treaty was never reinstated. That means India is no longer bound by its conditions. It can now potentially build new dams, or at the very least, use water as leverage to pressure or threaten Pakistan. India's Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah even announced plans to redirect river water into India’s interior through a specially constructed canal.

This is not the first time water has sparked conflict between India and Pakistan. Back in 1960, the two countries signed a bilateral treaty to divide the Indus River basin. Under the agreement, each side received control over three of the river's tributaries. However, India has repeatedly violated the agreement over the years.

"Putting the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance was a bit of a shock to the momentum because the treaty survived roughly 65 years in a quite tense environment. It was something like a model for water cooperation in fragile and tense settings. While the treaty had some weaknesses, it was solid and strong enough to sustain during ongoing political tensions and even wars between India and Pakistan. So, this unique arrangement is being questioned now," said Tobias von Lossow, Research Fellow at Clingendael's EU and Global Affairs Research Unit, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

Fragment of a Pakistani missile (photo: Getty Images)

Ironically, India itself depends on China, just as Pakistan depends on India. The issue lies in India’s northeast, where the Brahmaputra River flows. It originates in Tibet, which is a region within the People's Republic of China. And China, facing its own freshwater shortages, has already built 10 dams on the Brahmaputra and is constructing 18 more. This means an ongoing decline in the amount of water reaching India.

While water is rarely the sole cause of conflict, it is often a critical factor. And the number of such cases is steadily increasing.

Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam

Modern human civilization largely arose around great rivers — the Nile in Egypt, the Tigris and Euphrates in Sumer, the Yellow River (Huanghe) in China, and the Indus in South Asia. Thousands of years later, countries have changed, but these rivers continue to play a vital role in the lives of the people living along their banks. And just as in ancient times, struggles over their water persist.

For a long time, Egypt dictated the terms of Nile water distribution to its neighbors, Ethiopia and Sudan, thanks to its far stronger economy and military. However, in 2011, Egypt plunged into political chaos. During the revolution, longtime President Hosni Mubarak was removed from power — the new government, instead of focusing on foreign policy, concentrated on internal problems and political rivalries.

Ethiopia, located upstream on the Nile, took advantage of the situation. The government announced plans to build the largest dam and hydroelectric power plant in Africa. The name — the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam — is no coincidence. Ethiopia suffered from a severe electricity shortage, which affected not only its population but also its industry, thereby limiting economic development.

Commissioned in 2022, the Hidase Hydroelectric Power Plant on the Nile truly improved the country's situation, doubling electricity production. Its planned capacity is 5,000 megawatts. For comparison, before 2022, Ukraine’s entire cascade of hydropower plants on the Dnipro River produced one and a half times less.

A man helps a child carry a container of water. Rafah, Gaza Strip (photo: Getty Images)

"If states have control over some sovereign territory and directly over their zones of influence, and through global structures can influence some unions of states, then ecology — and specifically water issues — have no borders," said Leonid Bytsyura.

Ethiopia's actions could harm its Nile neighbors. For Egypt, the Nile is nearly the country’s only water source. To operate the Ethiopian hydro plant, a massive reservoir of 74 cubic kilometers is required. It was expected that while the reservoir fills, Egypt would receive less water from the Nile. However, unstable weather saved Egypt. During the reservoir's filling, Ethiopia experienced several seasons of heavy rains and floods, which helped offset water losses for Egypt.

Still, Egypt had long insisted that the reservoir fill slowly, for 10 years. But Ethiopia needs electricity now. The conflict is currently frozen, but it could flare up again, said Marta Oliynyk-D'omochko, Political Science PhD and Analyst at the Global Ukraine Foundation.

"There are no military actions there, but there is diplomatic tension that effectively destabilizes the entire region. Everything that is done in the Horn of Africa region, East Africa, if Egypt and Ethiopia are involved there, or even if the interests of the two sides are somehow remotely affected, the dam conflict will always be in the background," the expert said.

According to her, the water issue is part of broader disputes. Both countries are regional leaders competing for influence, but they understand the potential consequences of escalation.

"They are not going for open escalation because it is not beneficial to either side. In the case of an open armed conflict, losses will be significantly greater than in a 'frozen conflict,'" Oliynyk-D'omochko said.

However, water disputes don't always resolve without significant consequences.

Türkiye vs. Syria and Iraq: Water conflicts on the Tigris and Euphrates

The Tigris and Euphrates rivers are crucial to several countries. Türkiye controls the upper reaches, Syria lies in the middle course, and Iraq occupies the lower basin. For Syria and Iraq, these rivers are as vital as the Indus is for Pakistan. Yet, two-thirds of the Tigris and Euphrates flow originates in Türkiye. Unlike the India-Pakistan situation, this conflict is more complex.

"There has never been a comprehensive arrangement or basin-wide water sharing agreement. Talks were always ad hoc and usually in anticipation of emergency situations. De facto, Iraq has usually been asking Türkiye for concessions," said Tobias von Lossow in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

In 1974, several critical events occurred simultaneously. First, Syria, with Soviet support, constructed the Tabqa Dam, which began filling its large reservoir quickly. Second, Türkiye's upstream began filling its Keban reservoir, which was built shortly before. Third, a severe drought hit the region.

As a result, Iraq's water supply dropped by about one-third — a true disaster. Iraq first sought mediation from the regional Arab League. But Syria claimed it was receiving less water from Türkiye and refused to compromise. In response, Iraq deployed troops on the Syrian border and even threatened to bomb the dam.

The dried-up Euphrates, 2023 (photo: Getty Images)

The crisis was narrowly averted through mediation by Saudi Arabia and the Soviet Union. Syria immediately increased water releases from the dam and agreed to pass 60% of the Euphrates flow to Iraq. In 1987, Türkiye, Syria, and Iraq signed an agreement requiring Turkey to maintain a stable flow of the Euphrates at the Turkish-Syrian border.

However, the situation remains fluid. In the 1980s, Türkiye launched a massive development project for the Southeastern Anatolia region. The plan includes building 22 dams, 19 hydroelectric plants, and 25 irrigation systems. This project is still ongoing and, combined with droughts, continues to cause problems for Türkiye's neighbors.

Neither Syria nor Iraq currently has the capacity to counter Türkiye effectively. Iraq has been effectively occupied by the US since 2003, lost nearly a third of its territory to the terrorist Islamic State, and remains mired in political chaos. Syria has endured a civil war since 2011, suffered from Islamic State attacks, and is only now beginning to return to peace.

According to World Weather Attribution, droughts in the Euphrates basin that once occurred once every 250 years now happen roughly every 10 years. The situation was particularly dire from 2020 to 2021. River flow decreased by 73% compared to 1975, resulting in a 40% decline in wheat harvests due to irrigation shortages.

Iraq's Ministry of Water Resources warned that, if trends continue, the river could dry up completely by 2040. Türkiye and Iraq signed a new water-sharing agreement in early 2025, but its impact remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the situation continues to worsen. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Iraq is the most vulnerable country in the Middle East and North Africa region to the impacts of climate change.

In most cases, governments try to act responsibly, understanding the risks.

"We have a lot of water problems, and they have been increasing over the last decades, but states have not gone to war over water. Water can play a role in the overall, wider bilateral relations and be one factor, among others, why states go to war, but it has never been the main driver or main reason for it in modern history," Tobias von Lossow noted.

Mass migrations driven by water scarcity

In 2006, a severe multi-year drought struck northeastern Syria. For five years, water levels in the Euphrates River barely reached half their usual flow.

Some regions lost up to three-quarters of their wheat harvest. Livestock losses reached as high as 85%. Nearly 20% of Syria's population became unemployed.

The government of Bashar al-Assad faced a difficult situation. When water was available, the authorities encouraged wheat cultivation, which requires significant irrigation. But as the drought worsened, the state failed to offer alternatives. Social assistance was limited and given only to the poorest.

As a result, about 1.5 million people left rural areas and moved to major cities. Needless to say, they were not welcome. On the contrary, they added social tension by competing with urban residents for jobs.

This situation lasted until 2011, when anti-government protests erupted across the Middle East. The presence of a large number of impoverished people in Syria was not the main cause of the unrest — people were simply exhausted by the Assad family's decades-long rule. However, the water-related refugees deepened the crisis. The country then descended into a prolonged civil war.

Only last year did the Assad regime fall, and Syria is slowly returning to normal life. Among the many challenges ahead, water issues will remain one of the most critical.

A similar tragedy is unfolding thousands of miles from Syria. Lake Chad was once one of Africa's largest lakes. Located at the borders of Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, it was primarily a source of drinking water for local nomadic herders.

Over recent decades, the lake’s area has shrunk fifteenfold — from 26,000 square kilometers to just 1,500. Similar events had occurred before, and the nomads then simply moved south. When the lake replenished, they returned. But this time, the situation is different.

Yola militia fighters in northern Nigeria (photo: Getty Images)

To the south of Chad lies the densely populated nation of Nigeria. Over the past century, its population has grown more than tenfold, now exceeding 220 million people. That leaves little free space for nomads. They are now trying to claim land by force.

The number of clashes runs into the hundreds. These conflicts are mostly local and do not involve the state directly, though the central government tries to protect farmers as best it can.

"But the bigger problem for Lake Chad is terrorism. There are terrorist groups — a branch of the Islamic State and the organization Boko Haram. They skillfully exploit these problems to recruit new mercenaries and terrorists. And until this root cause is eradicated, the conflict will be very difficult to resolve," emphasized Marta Oliynyk-D'omochko in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

What's next

According to the UN, around half of the world’s population already experiences severe water shortages for at least part of the year.

"These conflicts are becoming increasingly prominent and relevant as the water situation on the whole planet is changing, not only in the river basins. We will be confronted with a large number of multiple water challenges — a trend that will continue and result in more and more escalations of water conflicts," said Tobias von Lossow.

Droughts that force entire populations to migrate are likely to become more common. While governments in developed countries may have the means to address water stress, many nations in the Global South lack the resources, and corruption only makes matters worse.

Regions most at risk include Central Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East. But Ukraine's water issues are not as distant as they may seem. The Dnipro River — the country's main waterway — originates in Russia and Belarus.

"It's clear that the Russians simply haven't yet realized that this could also be a point of vulnerability in the Ukrainian context. Because Ukraine is an absolute outsider when it comes to water resources — we are up to 50% dependent on the Dnipro River for our water use," Leonid Bytsyura told RBC-Ukraine.

According to von Lossow, even Russia needs to consider the long-term consequences of actions that could affect the Dnipro. Yet in several cases, Moscow has already used water as a weapon.

"Kakhovka Dam, of course, made the headlines. It is the case that everyone is aware of and that has been intensively discussed. But also, the dam at Kyiv reservoir was targeted by a missile on the first day, which was repelled by Ukraine’s air defense. So, water has already been on the agenda back then. It was also weaponised in Mariupol, when the city had been cut off from water supplies during the siege," he said.

That's why Ukraine, at the very least, must push for strong international legal frameworks to govern water issues. But more importantly, the country must finally recognize that water — even in Ukraine — is an extremely valuable and limited resource.

As climate change accelerates, it becomes increasingly difficult to predict the state of water resources in the coming decades. Will we see desertification and mass migration from arid regions to the north? Or will new conflicts erupt over how to share what remains? There are many possible outcomes. But as recent history shows, even the most unlikely ones should not be ruled out.

Sources: expert commentary from Leonid Bytsyura, Acting Head of the Department of Ecology and Health Care at West Ukrainian National University, a member of the International Water Association, of the Ukrainian Water Association, of the Dniester River Basin Council; Marta Oliynyk-D'omochko, Political Science PhD and Analyst at the Global Ukraine Foundation; and Tobias von Lossow, Research Fellow at Clingendael's EU and Global Affairs Research Unit. It also uses data from World Weather Attribution and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).