Europe vs Kremlin drones: How Ukraine's allies prepare for Russian aggression

Key questions:

• How is Europe defending itself against Russian drones?
• Why is the United States reducing its presence in Europe, but still has troops there?
• How is Ukraine helping Europe to protect itself?

This year, Oktoberfest will be remembered by Europeans not only for beer. First, the famous festival was suspended on October 1 due to a terrorist threat, and later, a swarm of unknown drones, likely Russian, paralyzed Munich Airport, leaving thousands of tourists trapped amid canceled flights and terminal chaos.

Against the backdrop of preparations for a new meeting between Trump and Putin, Russia's hybrid aggression against Europe has not disappeared. Since September 10, when Russian drones first violated Poland's airspace, the number of such incidents has reached dozens. On October 20, drones even reached Spain.

German, French, and Danish intelligence services have recorded Russia's use of a shadow fleet as a platform for launching drones into EU airspace. The drones appeared near military facilities and caused temporary shutdowns of airports in Denmark, Norway, Germany, Belgium, and other countries.

As reported by Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, the goal of such actions is multi-level destabilization. It involves reconnaissance and sabotage, testing air-defense systems and civil aviation security, as well as pressure on Ukraine's allies. But is the Alliance ready to move from words to action when it comes to responding to these new challenges?

To shoot or not to shoot

NATO is trying to counter hybrid threats. After the attack on Poland on September 10, the Alliance launched a new military operation — Eastern Sentry— to strengthen air defense on its eastern borders. Eight countries joined it — France, Germany, Czechia, the UK, Denmark, Italy, Spain, and Sweden. In essence, this is a redeployment of air-defense systems to where Russia is most testing the Alliance's nerves. In addition, NATO forces have long been patrolling the skies and seas of the Baltic states as part of the Baltic Sentinel and Baltic Air Policing initiatives.

Within the Alliance, their work is highly valued, but the emphasis is more on political deterrence of Russia than on an actual military response. When it comes to real countermeasures against Russian drones, much remains uncertain. In particular, this concerns the ability of member states to act unilaterally.

Last week, during a meeting of NATO defense ministers, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte failed to give a clear answer to whether NATO countries can independently shoot down drones. In response to RBC-Ukraine's question of whether a NATO member country can independently decide to shoot down drones, he only addressed Russia.

"Let me tell the Russians that if they intentionally try anything against NATO, we have everything in place, all the authority to make sure we can defend every inch of NATO air space and territory," Rutte said.

The thing is that some, but not all, NATO countries have their own rules on shooting down aerial targets, Belgium's Defense Minister Theo Francken said.

"But there are countries with their own rules, like Poland, like a lot of countries. It's also about sovereignty, so it's a difficult discussion," he explained.

Sources from The Telegraph report that NATO is discussing new rules that could simplify shooting down Russian fighters. The idea is to develop a single set of instructions for dealing with hostile aircraft. Under the plan, Russian planes carrying surface-to-surface missiles over allied airspace could become legitimate targets. The key determining factors would be the armament and trajectory of Russian aircraft.

US support

Another unknown factor in this equation remains the position of the United States. In Washington, the reaction to the Russian attack on September 10 was very ambiguous. Donald Trump commented on it with the words "Here we go!" and later even suggested that the Russian drone incursion might have been a mistake.

Later, however, Trump stated that in the event of escalating Russian aggression, the United States was ready to defend Poland and the Baltic states. When asked directly about this, he replied briefly: "I will do it."

Overall, the number of US troops in Europe is decreasing. The reasons are Trump's general shift toward a greater focus on China on the one hand and isolationist tendencies in his team on the other. Despite this, the US remains strategically and operationally engaged in defending NATO's eastern flank. In terms of deterring Russia, American forces remain in Poland and, on a rotational basis, in the Baltic countries.

In Brussels, officials particularly emphasize US participation in airspace patrols over Poland and the Baltic states.

A NATO military official said in response to a question from RBC-Ukraine that the United States had provided forces for both the Baltic Sentry and Eastern Sentry operations, including aircraft, ships, and troops.

American intelligence and aviation regularly participate in responding to threats.

"F-16s and other types of allied aircraft, always in coordination with US command, patrol the region, often coordinating actions with the air defenses of frontline countries," explained Anton Zemlyanyi, senior analyst at the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, in comments to RBC-Ukraine.

Ryanair aircraft at one of Europe's airports (photo: Getty Images)

Among other things, the key factor remains the provision of US intelligence to allies. Here, as before, everything is based on trust and close cooperation.

"I have seen no signs of a slowdown in intelligence sharing, neither from the US nor from our European colleagues within NATO's intelligence community. On the contrary, everything is happening the exact opposite. We are all increasing our efforts, including the United States," a senior NATO official said in a conversation with journalists in Brussels.

Despite all this, Europe and the United States differ in their key priorities. The Americans primarily focus on deterring China, while Europe still sees Russia as the main threat. Donald Trump regularly states that Europe needs to spend more on defense and has even made military spending a part of broader negotiations. Ultimately, at the most recent NATO summit in The Hague, he succeeded in getting the Europeans to commit to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. But is that enough?

Preparation of European countries

At the beginning of the year, RBC-Ukraine wrote that Europe was a "sleeping giant" — one that has enormous resources but does not use them. Now, this "giant" has woken up but, figuratively speaking, is still sitting in its pajamas and drinking coffee.

The EU is preparing to launch a large-scale defense reform that includes joint production of weapons and drones. According to a document reviewed by Bloomberg, it provides for a comprehensive renewal of the EU's military planning and procurement system.

Under the plan, by the end of 2027, the EU should carry out 40% of its weapons purchases jointly — more than double the current level. EU member states are encouraged to coordinate military spending and quickly form coalitions to implement joint defense programs.

A notable example of bureaucracy in this regard is the drone wall project. According to the European Commission's defense roadmap, it was supposed to reach "initial capacity" by the end of 2026 and become fully operational by the end of 2027.

Among NATO allies and EU members, there is agreement that strengthening air-defense capabilities and capacities remains the highest priority.

"Already last year, you could hear NATO officials say in background conversations that allies would need to quadruple their number of air-defense systems," Rafael Loss, a research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations specializing in defense, security, and technology, told RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, protection against aerial, missile, and drone threats was identified as a priority area as early as last autumn in a letter of instruction from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius.

Initially, the drone wall was intended to cover only the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which are closest to Russia. However, France, Germany, and several others opposed this approach, Politico reported.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (photo: Vitalii Nosach/RBC-Ukraine)

"What some EU and NATO countries criticized about the drone wall proposal was that it was too narrowly focused on the demands of eastern flank countries, recognizing that these are most exposed to the Russian threat, but also that Russian drones have appeared in other parts of Europe, too, and that it was poorly thought through," Rafael Loss explained.

At the same time, it does not matter that the idea of the wall assumes a level of protection from drone intrusions that no system can ever fully guarantee.

The criticism of the drone wall is primarily political in nature, agrees Anton Zemlyanyi.

"France, Germany, Italy, and Spain are the central EU countries, and they try to give the impression that the security situation in Europe is under control. That is why they are not particularly eager to support radical security reforms," the expert said.

In response to these comments, the European Commission transformed the drone wall into the European Counter-Drone Initiative. It is now intended to cover the entire territory of the European Union.

"At the same time, European countries must understand the potential threats and realize that such initiatives should address not only airborne targets. If Europeans do not adopt the lessons of the Ukrainian war, they will face significant problems in countering ground operations. Therefore, this project must expand to cover targets on land as well," Anton Zemlyanyi emphasized.

How Germany, Finland, and other countries are preparing

While European institutions are developing large-scale defense projects, individual countries are actively strengthening their own armies and air-defense systems.

In Germany, the government plans to revise its approach to building the armed forces. The ruling coalition has agreed on a new model of military service, which will initially be voluntary. All citizens aged 18 and over will be asked to fill out a special questionnaire. If the Bundeswehr fails to recruit enough volunteers based on the survey results, the authorities will consider introducing a lottery-based selection system. If that also fails, Germany may reinstate compulsory military service, which was abolished in 2011.

It is planned that, as a result of this expansion, the size of the German army will increase to about 260,000 troops. In addition, there are plans to create a reserve of 200,000 people.

In September, the Finnish government submitted a bill to parliament aimed at increasing the military reserve by 125,000 people. By 2031, the size of Finland's wartime army will exceed one million personnel — making it the largest in the European Union. Moreover, Finland's ground forces plan to resume the use of anti-personnel mines starting in January next year.

Reforms are also underway in Poland. For example, the government plans to allocate 4.8% of GDP to defense-related spending next year. In addition, Warsaw is actively using grant and loan funds provided by the European Union to purchase weapons.

"The EU, NATO, smaller coalitions, and individual member states are taking steps to rearm. Instruments such as the EU's SAFE loan scheme are supposed to facilitate collaboration along the way and to ensure that countries with a less-than-favorable outlook on public finances can still move forward in concert with the others," Rafael Loss told RBC-Ukraine.

At the same time, not all countries are modernizing successfully — likely because they either do not believe in the risk of Russian aggression or rely on US support.

"Most of the changes in European armies are currently related not to adopting Ukraine's experience in modern warfare, but to reforming and, above all, restoring military potential (including human capital) that EU countries lost after the end of the Cold War," Zemlyanyi concluded.

How Ukraine can help Europe

Essentially, Europe faces a four-part challenge, Loss said. On one hand, it needs to continue supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine and accelerate the build-up of its own defenses. On the other hand, it must adapt to the US stepping back from European security and deal with Chinese restrictions on materials critical to the defense industry, which poses an enormous problem for European leaders.

In response to these challenges, Kyiv is actively offering its help to Europe, relying on its unique experience. At the end of September, Ukraine proposed to Poland and other partners the creation of a "joint, truly reliable shield" against Russian aerial threats, which envisages the integration of Ukrainian technologies and tactics into European air-defense systems.

As part of the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) initiative in Wiesbaden, Ukrainian officers regularly hold seminars, sharing combat experience. Projects such as the Drone Coalition are being implemented together with European partners, where data from the Ukrainian front is used to improve interceptors.

This cooperation not only strengthens Ukraine but also arms Europe with a unique experience to repel the Kremlin. The only question is the scale and speed of its implementation.