Black day for Russian Air Force: Will Moscow scale back its strikes after Ukrainian sabotage

On June 1, the SBU carried out an unprecedented operation to destroy Russian aircraft that have been bombing Ukraine for years. Several military airfields were attacked with 117 FPV drones launched from Russian territory and controlled by pilots online.

According to official information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine, 41 aircraft were hit. Of these, according to the Center for Countering Disinformation, at least 13 were destroyed. Some Russian pro-war public figures call this a black day for Russian aviation, while some Ukrainian experts call it a turning point in the war.

Results

Monitoring channels and OSINT observers, after analyzing satellite images, claim that at least 12 Russian strategic aircraft were burned. These include eight Tu-95MS/Tu-95MSM (carriers of missiles such as the Kh-101, Kh-55, and Kh-555) and four Tu-22M3 (launching Kh-22/Kh-32). These two types of aircraft, along with the Tu-160 (another carrier of Kh-101 missiles, etc.), belong to Russia's strategic aviation.

These are preliminary estimates of Russian losses, as the analysis of the consequences is still ongoing. Other aircraft that may have been destroyed during the attack include an An-12 transport aircraft and possibly a Tu-160 and an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft (the so-called eyes of strategic aviation).

"There were A-50 aircraft in storage at the Ivanovo airbase. Approximately 30 such aircraft were manufactured during the Soviet era. Only 10 were in service in Russia, while the other 20 remained in storage in varying degrees of preservation," Ivan Kyrychevskyi, an expert at the Defense Express information and consulting agency, tells RBC-Ukraine.

In this attack, it is no exaggeration to say that striking the missile carriers, which Russia systematically uses to strike both the frontline and rear areas of Ukraine, is important. During Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Tu-22M3s fired over 400 missiles at Ukraine, while Tu-95s and Tu-160s fired about 2,500.

According to RBC-Ukraine sources in the Ukrainian Defense Forces, as of May 31, 2025, i.e., at the time of the attack, Russia had 154 strategic aircraft: 16 Tu-160s, 62 Tu-95MS/Tu-95MSMs, and 76 Tu-22MZs.

A-50 aircraft (photo: GettyImages)

However, experts note that Moscow may have had significantly fewer serviceable aircraft on the wing. The rest were idle, in need of repair due to engine wear, or were donor aircraft.

"As of May 31, Russia could have had 25-30 Tu-95 aircraft in service. There were also 13 Tu-160 aircraft in flying condition and another 4 undergoing modernization, but they can be disregarded because they have been undergoing modernization for over three years. There are 25 Tu-22M3s left, plus or minus 2. There are also 3 A-50U AWACS aircraft left and about 10-12 old, non-modernized A-50s. However, it is not clear from the reports which of them were among those damaged or destroyed," explains aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap.

How quickly can Russia recover its losses

Given these figures, the real scale of Russia's losses looks much more serious. Moreover, Moscow is no longer able to produce any of these types of aircraft. And those that are damaged will not be easy to restore.

"They do not produce new aircraft. Therefore, regardless of the extent of the losses they have suffered, it will be difficult for them to restore these aircraft. Consider that this is not a renewable resource for them. Regardless of what the final numbers of damaged aircraft turn out to be — whether minimal or maximal — it will still be more than the Russians usually deployed for a massive attack," Kyrychevskyi clarifies.

The Tu-95 bomber can carry a maximum of eight Kh-101 missiles, although in reality it was loaded with significantly fewer due to the wear and tear of the aircraft. And during the war, the Russians, as a rule, did not deploy more than 3 or 3 squadrons of these aircraft for attacks on Ukraine.

"As for the possibility of the Russians using strategic aviation, over the past year, they have not used more than 18 aircraft in the European part of Russia. In addition, they do not attach more than 4 missiles to the Tu-95 at all," Kryvolap clarifies.

The Tu-22M3 could carry three Kh-22 missiles or its upgraded version, the Kh-32. In reality, no more than 2 missiles were attached to it. However, unlike the Kh-101, Russia uses these missiles less frequently. Moscow last launched them against Ukraine in May, and before that in early February.

How will it affect Russia and Ukraine

"Russia's strategic aviation was a tool for strategically weakening Ukraine. It knocked out the power industry, the defense-industrial complex, critical infrastructure, and so on. The fewer operational strategic bombers the Russians have, the less opportunity they have to destroy Ukraine's infrastructure. The winning moment for Ukraine is that the tool that fuels Russia's ambitions to capture four of Ukraine's regions has been weakened," Kyrychevskyi suggests.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that an attack on Russian aviation could at least temporarily limit Russia's ability to launch missile strikes on Ukraine. On the other hand, to maintain the same intensity of strikes, Russia will either have to use all available aircraft (the exact number of which is unknown) or spend more time preparing attacks.

In addition, many air bases have been damaged, the load on the surviving aircraft is increasing, and the Russians will probably have to transfer some of them to other air bases to protect them from repeated strikes.

Preliminary consequences of the attack on the Belaya airfield (satellite image: X OSINT analysis by Chris Biggers)

"Right now, there is hysteria and panic in Russia, everyone is being searched and checked. And it turns out that there is nowhere to hide these aircraft. Ukraine has shown that we are fighting on a completely different level of innovation and technology. We are fighting with conventional weapons, not very powerful, but highly accurate and therefore highly effective — 30% of strategic aviation was effectively knocked out in one day," Kryvolap believes.

In political and geopolitical terms, the attack on Russian airfields confirmed that Ukraine could use asymmetric moves and technological solutions in the war. For the world, this is a demonstration that Russia is unable to protect its elite aircraft, one of the elements of its nuclear triad, which it periodically threatens the West with.

Equally important, this operation led to an emotional uplift in society. Against the backdrop of a difficult situation on the front lines and daily Russian strikes, Ukrainians do not often have reason to rejoice in significant victories. This SBU operation reminded them that Russia also has its weaknesses, which Ukraine can exploit. However, this is no reason to let down our guard, unfortunately, Moscow still has long-range drones and other missile weapons with which it can cause significant damage and attack Ukraine.