Why Russia returns MiGs to Belarus and whether there is threat to Kyiv: Expert opinion
Russia may deploy MiG-31K to Belarus to prepare for a massive attack on Ukraine (wikipedia.org)
Russia is deploying MiG-31K fighter jets, which are carriers of Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, to Belarus. There could be several reasons for this — from attempting to protect their aircraft to preparing for a new massive strike on Ukraine, according to an RBC-Ukraine report below.
What is known about MiG-31K jets in Belarus
Yesterday evening, the monitoring group Belarusian Hajun reported the arrival of the first MiG-31K of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Belarus, landing at the Machulishchi airfield. Today, the arrival of a second MiG-31K at the same airfield was confirmed.
The MiG-31K is a two-seater, all-weather, long-range fighter capable of carrying the Kh-47m2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, which not all of Ukraine's air defense systems can intercept. However, the Patriot system is capable of doing so.
Observers have pointed out that there have been no MiG-31K fighters in Belarus for the past year and a half — since April 6, 2023. In October 2022, Russia transferred three such MiGs to Belarus but later withdrew them.
These jets could fly in Belarusian airspace but did not launch strikes on Ukrainian territory, as they did from Russia. However, their flights in Belarus triggered large-scale air alarms in Ukraine, given that the MiG-31K’s missile system has a range of up to 2,000 km.
What is Russia planning?
According to military expert, retired Ukrainian Armed Forces Major Oleksii Hetman, there could be several reasons for transferring the Kinzhal missile carriers to Belarus.
As Hetman explained, one reason could be to shield their MiGs from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airfields. On August 16, Ukraine’s Defense Forces managed to strike the Savasleyka military airfield in Russia, destroying a MiG-31K/I, two Il-76 planes, and damaging around five other aircraft, possibly MiG-31K/I models.
Hetman also warns that this transfer could pose an increased threat, including to Kyiv. "There are already warnings from the Main Intelligence Directorate that the Russians are preparing a new massive strike on Ukraine, similar to the one on August 26. This could be part of the preparation for such a strike," he said.
Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD), suggests that Russia may be attempting to safeguard its aircraft, which are constantly under threat at Russian airfields.
"However, we shouldn't rule out the possibility of provocations. After the Russian Shahed strike near Mozyr, where an oil refinery was accidentally made public, it became clear that Russia might be preparing a provocation against Belarus," added Kovalenko.
Recently, aviation expert Bohdan Dolintse commented to RBC-Ukraine that Russia may have lost half of its MiG-31K fleet after the attack on Savasleyka.
Before the full-scale war, it was reported that Russia had 12 of these fighters in service. Since one was confirmed destroyed, and another during the strike on Savasleyka, Russia may now have 10 left. However, Dolintse says that Russia is still capable of replenishing its fleet of these missile carriers.
Sources: the monitoring group Belarusian Hajun, statements by the head of the CCD Andrii Kovalenko, and an exclusive comment from military expert, retired Ukrainian Armed Forces Major Oleksii Hetman.
