Why Russia focuses on Kurakhove and risks for Ukrainian Armed Forces: Expert's assessment
Photo: Russians throw everything to advance toward Kurakhove, Ukrainian Armed Forces hold the line (Getty Images)
Russian troops are trying to break through to Kurakhove in the Donetsk region and are making some progress, putting pressure on three sides. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding the line, but there is a threat of encirclement and the danger of Russia cutting the main logistics route to this town.
The RBC-Ukraine article below discusses the situation around Kurakhove, the threat of encirclement, and why Russians are trying to take the town.
Contents
- Why it is important for Russia to capture Kurakhove
- Russia wants to cut main logistics route to city
- Is there threat of encirclement of Kurakhove?
Why it is important for Russia to capture Kurakhove
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the majority of attacks by Russian troops remain in the Kurakhove direction. And Russia has made some progress in this area.
The Ukrainian project Deep State notes that Russia's pressure on Kurakhove has recently intensified with new directions that jeopardize logistics to the town. To do this, Russia has attracted a large number of resources in several areas of the front.
In particular, the Russian invaders are actively storming the eastern part of Kurakhove through Maksymilianivka, running to the eastern outskirts of the city. At the same time, attempts to break through in the area of Ostrovske continue.
According to military expert, reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksii Hetman, the enemy is focusing its efforts on the Kurakhove direction because it is now stuck in Pokrovsk.
“Russia has approached 7-8 kilometers and we are not letting them go further. It cannot move closer to Pokrovsk. So he tried from the Toretsk direction. Russia did not have much success there. Now it is trying to do the same from the other, southern flank - from the Kurakhove direction,” Hetman says in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
The expert explains that it is important for Russians to capture Kurakhove because it is a large city. Secondly, it opens up certain opportunities for movement to Pokrovsk.
Map: the situation in the area of Kurakhove in Donetsk region is getting more complicated (DeepState)
Russia wants to cut main logistics route to city
Deep State analysts note that the situation is being stabilized by all possible means, but it has not succeeded so far.
“If the Russians continue to make progress at the current pace, they will soon reach the H-15 Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk highway, which will allow them to cut off the most important and main logistical route to the city,” they wrote.
Hetman explains that this highway is the main logistics route that supplies everything necessary for Ukrainian troops in and around Kurakhove.
“If Russia cuts it off, we will have to bring everything we need by other means, for example, off-road, through the fields. This will greatly complicate logistics,” emphasizes Hetman.
In addition, it may make it impossible if heavy rains begin. In this case, it will be impossible for the soldiers to pass.
“And we understand that a unit that is at zero needs a constant supply of the necessary stuff for combat operations. In small batches, but constantly. To do this, it is necessary to have working routes that can be used to move quickly and on time. If this is blocked, the unit will be left without supplies and we will most likely have to withdraw,” the expert says.
Map: the key highway H15, which is the main logistics route to Kurakhove, is under threat (DeepState)
Is there threat of encirclement of Kurakhove?
South of Kurakhove, according to Deep State, Russia's larger goal is emerging - not only to take control of logistics but to gradually surround the settlement.
According to BILD analyst Julian Röpke, the allegedly dangerous situation for Ukrainian soldiers is in the area of the Kurakhove reservoir, south of which most of the town is located. He stated that there is a so-called threat of a cauldron for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of Kurakhove.
The fact that Kurakhove is under the threat of encirclement was confirmed yesterday on Radio Svoboda by the press officer of the 33rd Brigade Nazar Voitenkov. However, he did not answer the question of whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces should leave the town, but called the situation extremely difficult and added that it had changed a lot since the summer.
Attempts by Russian troops to surround a settlement by attacking from the flanks are a common practice. As Hetman explains, even Russian troops do not often resort to frontal assaults as they did in Bakhmut.
“Usually they try to go around the city from the flanks to cut off the units that are there, their supplies. And then that's it - the unit first holds on to what it has, and then it has nothing to fight with and will naturally retreat,” the expert says.
In the future, Russian troops may impose urban fighting in Kurakhove. According to the expert, they will. And if Russia fails to outflank them, they will still attack head-on. Either combine actions or combine them, hitting both flanks and maneuvering in the suburbs.
After the capture of Vuhledar, Russia continued its offensive in the direction of Kurakhove, choosing this town as its next target.
As RBC-Ukraine wrote earlier in the article, Russians are likely to do everything to get close to Kurakhove and Pokrovsk and try to surround the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but not to start fighting directly for these settlements, waiting for their forces to be replenished.
Thus, the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions remain the most active now. Read more about how they are interconnected, about the general situation, and Russia's plans in an RBC-Ukraine article.
Sources: reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, data and maps from Deep State and BILD analysts, a statement by the press officer of the 33rd Brigade Nazar Voitenkov, and an exclusive commentary by military expert, Major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksii Hetman.
