Where Russia to push on frontline this fall - ISW assessment
Photo: Russia will concentrate forces in Donbas this fall (Getty Images)
This fall, Russia will again try to capture Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, but the pace of the offensive remains slow, according to an RBC-Ukraine article.
According to ISW, the key focus for Russia this autumn remains the Donetsk region. The main effort will be on attempts to seize Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, as well as preparing for battles against Ukraine's "fortress belt" in the areas of Sloviansk, Druzhkivka, and Kramatorsk.
The Russian command is redeploying naval infantry and airborne troops to the Donetsk region from northern Sumy and the Kherson direction.
"These redeployments strongly suggest that the Russian Fall 2025 offensive will focus on efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, particularly in the Dobropillya, Pokrovsk, and Kostyantynivka areas," says ISW Russia analyst Grace Mappes.
Pokrovsk - main target
Russian forces are expanding their positions around Pokrovsk, creating a threat to Ukrainian positions in the city. The offensive pace remains slow, and they are still far behind the plans developed back in 2024.
"Russian forces may finally succeed in seizing Pokrovsk in Fall 2025 (an effort Russian forces have been working on since October 2023), though it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces will succeed in denying this objective for several more months," explains Grace Mappes.
ISW analysts estimate that if Russian combat capability remains at its current level, they may advance toward Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka, but are unlikely to achieve full control by year's end. Taking full control of Ukraine's "fortress belt" in Donbas remains a multi-year task.
Over the past day, 156 combat clashes occurred on the frontline. In the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 43 enemy attacks in the areas of Shakhove, Vilne, Kotlyne, Novopidhorodne, Novoeconomichne, Rodynske, Myroliubivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrainka, and toward Novopavlivka.
Ukrainian forces also destroyed nearly 30 Russian artillery systems and over 460 drones. In addition, five enemy cruise missiles were eliminated in the past 24 hours.
Earlier, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported that in August, Ukrainian troops regained control over 58 square kilometers of territory and liberated several settlements from Russian occupation.
