War in Ukraine depends on Trump administration, Davos experts say

“Regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the position taken by the new US administration will be critical to its evolution. Will the United States take a firmer stance towards Russia, counting on such a move acting as a deterrent to further Russian escalation, and/or will it increase pressure on Ukraine, including reducing financial support?” the report says.

In the latter case, European governments may increase their support for Ukraine.

“The spectrum of possible outcomes over the next two years is wide, ranging from further escalation, perhaps also involving neighbouring countries, to uneasy agreement to freeze the conflict,” the document says.

The Global Risks Report 2025 also contains data from a survey of 900 participants in the Davos Forum.

Almost a quarter of respondents (23%) chose a state-based armed conflict as the main risk for 2025. “The current geopolitical climate, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ... makes it nearly impossible not to think about such events when assessing the one global risk expected to present a material crisis in 2025,” the report adds.

The danger of extreme weather events is in second place among the main risks identified in this year's study.

“Rising geopolitical tensions, a fracturing of global trust and the climate crisis are straining the global system like never before,” said Mirek Dušek, WEF managing director.

“In a world marked by deepening divides and cascading risks, global leaders have a choice: to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding instability.”

The Global Risks Report, now in its 20th edition, accompanies the Davos Forum, where many world leaders will speak to businesspeople, with a total of 3,000 participants.

This year, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy will personally attend the Davos Forum. US President-elect Donald Trump will be present online.