US weighs redrawing Ukraine's regional borders to satisfy Putin — The Economist

According to people involved in the negotiations, the Americans have already proposed several controversial concessions to persuade Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to agree to a deal. One of the ideas is to redraw the administrative boundaries of Ukraine's regions.

This concerns the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which Russia seeks to capture in their entirety. If their borders were changed, Russia could claim full control over these regions. At the same time, Ukraine would not have to cede the cities that remain under its control.

What other concessions being offered to Russia?

Another concession is to allow Russia back into European energy markets. This contradicts a new European Union law. Ukraine and its European partners oppose this.

Ukrainian official states there's no chance Ukraine will agree to this while the war is still going on.

Trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US are set to begin on November 10 in Abu Dhabi. These are the first such talks since February. They will last two days.

People familiar with the talks say that Russia is showing unusual flexibility, particularly regarding a ceasefire along the current front lines. This shift came after US negotiators proposed expanding the discussion to include European security.

Critics believe this has allowed Russia to make new demands that are impossible to meet. In their view, Russia will continue the war while merely going through the motions of negotiations. US officials assert that these proposals have the support of European partners and NATO.

Why Trump is in a hurry

Few believe that a window of opportunity for serious diplomacy has opened. However, sources in the US and Ukraine say that US President Donald Trump's significant defeat in the midterm elections has added a sense of urgency to the process.

In January, the Democrats will gain a majority in both houses of Congress. For Trump's chief negotiators, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, this is a strict deadline. They may soon face investigations over a potential conflict of interest.

Ukrainian negotiators are privately skeptical about the chances of a breakthrough. However, they have been instructed to approach the talks without preconceptions so as not to irritate Trump. Ukraine does not believe that Putin is ready to sign a comprehensive peace agreement before the end of Russia's winter campaign.

A high-ranking official in Ukraine says perhaps this is their Plan B while they carry out Plan A.

The most difficult issue, as before, is security guarantees. Without them, Ukraine says it cannot stop fighting. According to US negotiators, Putin might agree to a US guarantee similar to NATO Articles 4 or 5. This is a promise of consultation if Ukraine faces a threat, or of defense if it is attacked. Ukrainians doubt that Trump will honor such guarantees.

Russia shows no willingness to accept a multinational support force in Ukraine. Nor has it dropped its demands that Ukraine declare neutrality and reduce the size of its military.

The Ukrainian delegation began its work in Abu Dhabi with a meeting with representatives of the United States and European partners.

According to Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, representatives from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, NATO, and the European Commission joined the delegation.

Trump's envoys are pressuring Russia to get Europe to join the next round of negotiations.

Washington wants the meeting in Abu Dhabi to be the last one without European participation.