US presidential and congressional elections: Potential implications for Ukraine

In the first scenario, the Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and win the Senate. In this case, the presidency will be of great importance. Either he will get a completely loyal Congress or a completely hostile one.

However, there is also a high probability that Congress will be divided after the elections, with different parties controlling different houses of parliament. There are still many supporters of helping Ukraine in both houses of Congress, but it will become increasingly difficult to agree on joint bills.

“This will be difficult. The Republican Party is divided over Ukraine. When a major aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan was finally passed earlier this year, just over half of the Republicans in the House of Representatives voted for it, and in the Senate, it was supported by less than half,” Uriel Epshtein, executive director of the American non-profit organization Renew Democracy Initiative, told RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, much depends on who wins the presidency, as the Republican Party is now functioning under the almost cult-like leadership of Donald Trump.

If Trump is in the White House, he will dictate policy - he has even demonstrated the ability to influence Republicans by delaying a major bill to help Ukraine and Ukraine's other allies for months.

“If Harris wins and Trump loses, he will still have influence, but it will be seriously weakened — by the next presidential election, he will be 82 years old, older than Biden is now, and he will be someone who lost the election twice in a row," Epshtein concludes.

Contrary to the common perception that the US president almost single-handedly determines the course of his country, he will in any case have to look back to the Senate and the House of Representatives. A divided Congress, when different chambers are controlled by different parties, can have different meanings for Ukraine, the article says.

On the one hand, it risks slowing down the allocation of the next aid packages. On the other hand, especially in the event of a Trump victory, the presence of a Democratic-controlled House of Congress could serve as a kind of safeguard against Trump's too sharp foreign policy maneuvers.

The US presidential and congressional elections will take place on November 5. Americans are choosing between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. Polls show approximately equal chances.

Current polls show that the Republicans have a slight advantage over the Democrats in controlling the House of Representatives, but it is very close to fifty-fifty. Republicans are expected to win the Senate with a majority of a couple of seats.