US-licensed Patriot production may be based outside Ukraine, Reuters reports
Photo: Patriot air defense missile system (Getty Images)
Ukraine urgently needs Patriot interceptor missiles, and entrusting their production to European partners may be the fastest solution, according to Reuters.
Patriot production in Ukraine will take time
US President Donald Trump's pledge to allow Ukraine to produce Patriot air defense systems is a victory for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, experts say it could take at least a year before production begins.
Patriot interceptors are critical to Ukraine's air defense as Russia continues to use its advantage in ballistic missiles, launching large-scale attacks on Kyiv and other cities.
However, Trump's announcement lacked specifics. He admitted that he had not previously spoken with the companies that manufacture Patriot interceptor missiles.
Defense experts believe production of Raytheon's PAC-2 interceptors or the more advanced PAC-3 interceptors made by Lockheed Martin cannot begin quickly.
"I would be very surprised if this is faster than 12 months. I would assume significantly longer," said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies in Oslo.
Production outside Ukraine?
Defense specialists say building interceptor missiles is one of the most technically demanding tasks in missile manufacturing.
Germany is considered one of the countries that could help accelerate the process because it has already established its own production chain for PAC-2 interceptors.
Two sources told Reuters that new interceptors are more likely to be manufactured in Germany or another European country where production would be safer. Manufacturing could later be transferred to Ukraine after the war ends.
Zelenskyy on interceptor deliveries
On July 9, Zelenskyy said technical teams would begin working on the details as quickly as possible. At the same time, he stressed that he wants production to start in Ukraine as soon as possible.
The president also said deliveries of PAC-3 interceptors from the United States are expected in the "coming days."
He also appealed to other allies to provide missiles from their own stockpiles under a NATO-coordinated financial arrangement.
How many Patriot missiles does Ukraine need?
Russia produces at least 700 to 800 Iskander ballistic missiles and Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles each year.
Since intercepting a single ballistic missile typically requires three Patriot interceptors, Ukraine would need around 2,400 interceptors annually if Russia maintains its current production rate.
"Even with a licensed production facility in Ukraine, reaching that number will be very, very difficult, if not impossible," Hoffmann said.
He estimated that a Ukrainian plant could manufacture between 200 and 300 interceptors per year.
Is a plan B needed?
Zelenskyy has said Ukraine also needs a backup plan, referring to the development of the country's own anti-ballistic missile system, Freya.
"Fire Point's Freya project is a long shot, but if it works, the reward is enormous," said Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Watling added that Europe also has alternative systems, including the SAMP/T NG air defense system developed by Eurosam, a joint venture of MBDA and France's Thales.
Ukraine is working at a rapid pace to develop its own Freya anti-ballistic missile system, but officials acknowledge that support from international partners will remain essential.
Ukraine's Foreign and Defense Ministries are expected to begin technical work on securing a Patriot production license without delay in order to launch manufacturing as quickly as possible.
