US election: Trump and Harris' ratings after debate
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris during the debate (photo: Getty Images)
On September 10, the US held a presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
RBC-Ukraine analyses how they affected the candidates' ratings.
Contents
National ratings
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,400 registered voters who have heard at least something about the debate, Harris has a 5% lead over his opponent nationally, 47% to 42%. In August, an Ipsos poll had Harris at 45% and Trump at 41%.
A YouGov poll of 1,400 adults found no change in voter preferences. After the debate, Harris has the same advantage over Trump - within the statistical margin of error. 46% are ready to vote for the Democrat and 45% are ready to vote for Trump.
A Morning Consult poll of 3,300 likely voters showed a 1% decline in Trump's rating, from 46% to 45%. At the same time, Harris' ratings remain at 50% before and after the debate.
Ratings in swing states
The US has a very peculiar election system. You need to win a certain number of states. Most of them consistently vote for Democrats or Republicans. However, there are some states where neither party has a significant advantage. These states are called swing states.
In all swing states, the changes in ratings after the debate were within tenths of a percent, not exceeding the statistical error. According to the poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight:
In Michigan, Trump - 46.1%, Harris - 47.6%.
In Arizona, Trump - 47.5%, Harris - 46.7%.
In Nevada, Trump - 47%, Harris - 47%.
In Georgia: Trump - 47.9%, Harris - 47.1%.
In North Carolina, Trump - 47.4 percent, Harris - 47.3 percent
In Wisconsin, Trump - 46%, Harris - 48.6%.
In Pennsylvania, Trump - 46.9%, Harris - 47.4%.
Other polling indicators that matter in elections
According to the Yahoo/YouGov poll, about half of the debate viewers say they did not learn anything new about Trump. They learned little - 31% and learned a lot - 21%. However, among those who did learn something about Trump, only about half say it was positive. The other half say that what they learned was mostly negative or mixed.
At the same time, 32% of debate viewers say they learned a lot about Harris, while 38% say they learned little. Roughly two-thirds of this group say what they learned was mostly positive.
A CNN poll shows Trump leading Harris by 20% on economic management: 55% to 35%. The gap has grown by 2% since the debate. On immigration, Trump is also significantly ahead of Harris, 56% to 33%. In the role of commander-in-chief, the Republican has a smaller advantage - 49% versus 43% for his rival.
At the same time, Harris is ahead of Trump on the issues of defending democracy - 49% to 40% and abortion - 52% to 31%.
A YouGov poll shows that across the US, 72% of Harris supporters are determined to vote. Only 67% of Trump supporters say the same. But the enthusiasm is much lower among young people, who are crucial to the Democrats. Only 78% of people under 30 say they are likely to vote. At the same time, 95% of people over 45 who lean towards supporting Trump are determined to vote.
RBC-Ukraine analyzed how the debate took place and what Trump and Harris said about Ukraine.
Sources: CNN, Ipsos, Morning Consult, and poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
