US can't deter Israel if Iran attacks - Axios

To understand the context, the newspaper recalls that on October 1, Iran attacked Israel with 180 ballistic missiles. Then, on October 25, the Israeli state responded with strikes against Iranian military targets, but they were not against nuclear or oil production facilities. After that, threats from the Iranians reappeared, and America reacted.

"We told the Iranians: We won't be able to hold Israel back, and we won't be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one", the US representative said.

The US official added that this message was conveyed directly to the Iranians. According to an Israeli official, the message from Washington to Tehran was transmitted through the Swiss.

This comes as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Saturday at a meeting with students that the United States and Israel “will definitely receive a crushing response.” In addition, Esmail Kousari, a member of the National Security Committee of the Iranian parliament, said on that day that the Iranian Security Council had agreed on retaliatory measures, but had not yet determined the exact date and scope. He also said that the attack would be carried out jointly with other “resistance” groups in the region and would be more powerful than the October 1 attack.

The day before, on Friday, White House press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre told reporters that the administration "had been very clear that Iran should not respond" and that the United States would continue to support Israel if the Iranians did so.

On the same day, Pentagon spokesperson General Pat Ryder said that the United States was deploying additional destroyers, missile defense systems, fighter squadrons, and refueling aircraft, as well as several USAF B-52 long-range bombers to the Middle East.

“Secretary Austin continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people,” Ryder said.

Axios writes that in recent days, Israeli intelligence has suggested that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraq using drones and ballistic missiles. According to the assumption, the attack could be before the US presidential election. US officials have confirmed that such a scenario remains likely in the coming days.

In turn, attacks through pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, rather than directly from Iranian territory, may be an attempt by Iran to avoid another Israeli attack on Iranian strategic facilities.

Meanwhile, Israeli and US officials have said that Israel could respond even if an Iranian attack were to be launched from Iraqi territory.

“It will depend on how massive the attack is and what are its results,” an Israeli official summarized.