Ukrainians downgrade country's post-war recovery forecasts
It will take ten years or more to rebuild Ukraine (Getty Images)
The percentage of Ukrainians who believe that the country's reconstruction after the victory in the war with Russia will take 10 years or more increased to 73% in November 2023. In March, 60% of respondents held this view, according to data from a survey by Info Sapiens.
Only 23% of Ukrainians believe that the reconstruction will take up to five years. Similar forecasts are made regarding the recovery of the economy, with 70% believing that this process will take 10 years or more.
The survey, commissioned by Transparency International Ukraine with the support of the USAID Project "Support to Anti-Corruption Champion Institutions (SACCI)," was conducted in November 2023 and included 1009 respondents.
Forecasts
The National Bank of Ukraine and the Cabinet of Ministers anticipate a significant reduction in security risks at the beginning of 2025. Earlier expectations had pointed to this happening by mid-2024.
The baseline scenario of the October macroeconomic forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine is based on a more conservative assumption than previous forecasts of high security risks being expected to persist until the end of 2024, whereas in July, the NBU anticipated a substantial decrease by the middle of the next year.
Furthermore, the budget project for the second reading is presented with consideration of the change in the assumption of the duration of the war (throughout 2024). In September, the Cabinet of Ministers expected a significant reduction in security risks in the second half of 2024.
