Ukrainian grain exports to fall sharply after Russian strikes on ports
Photo: Ukrainian grain at the Port of Odesa (Getty Images)
Ukraine's agricultural exports could fall by more than half this season after Russian attacks disrupted operations at Black Sea ports, Bloomberg reports.
Ukraine could lose more than half of its grain exports
According to Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture, the country is expected to export about 29.6 million metric tons of agricultural products in the 2026/27 marketing year.
That is 54% lower than the previous estimate of 64.4 million metric tons.
Wheat exports are expected to fall 53% to 8.3 million metric tons compared with the earlier forecast. Ukraine is one of the world's largest grain exporters, Bloomberg noted.
Agriculture generated more than half of Ukraine's export revenue last year. Russian attacks on the ports of Odesa, which normally handle about 90% of the country's grain exports, have severely disrupted those shipments.
Is there an alternative?
Alternative export routes via the Danube are limited because drought has pushed water levels in the river to record lows.
Meanwhile, the new harvest is filling storage facilities, putting pressure on domestic prices. Ukraine's grain storage capacity of about 59 million metric tons could be fully filled by early November. By the end of autumn, the storage shortfall is expected to reach around 11 million metric tons.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has approved subsidized loans for agricultural producers and planned additional measures to expand grain storage capacity.
Ukraine has also asked the European Commission for €220 million ($253 million) in grants to subsidize interest rates on loans for small and medium-sized farmers.
Kyiv and Bucharest have agreed to increase shipments through Romania's Port of Constanța, while Ukraine's state railway operator, Ukrzaliznytsia, is seeking additional transit routes.
Grain is already being rerouted through Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary, but those routes cannot fully replace the export capacity of Odesa's ports.
Earlier, RBC-Ukraine reported that Ukraine's direct losses from reduced export revenues are expected to exceed $2 billion in the second half of 2026.
On August 6, Russian forces also struck another civilian vessel carrying Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea, killing a Ukrainian sailor.
