Ukrainian drones slow Russian advances, potentially tipping the balance of war - ISW

The ISW follows an interview with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Ukrainian media on November 16, in which the president noted that Russian troops are advancing along the frontline, partly due to a decline in Ukrainian morale, which is exacerbated by delays in staffing and equipping new Ukrainian brigades, as well as the need for adequate rest and rotation for Ukrainian defenders on the front lines.

Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of forming new brigades to replace and reinforce the Ukrainian forces currently stationed on the front. At the same time, he mentioned that Russian forces continue to suffer significant casualties in exchange for minimal territorial gains. According to the president’s estimates, Russian troops are losing between 1,500 and 2,000 soldiers per day in Ukraine. He stated that the enemy cannot maintain their pace of advance while sustaining such heavy losses.

The ISW believes that Zelenskyy’s acknowledgment of morale issues and the lack of personnel among Ukrainian infantry on the front suggests that Ukrainian drones are likely playing a key role in defending against Russian forces and inflicting losses on them.

During the interview, Zelenskyy pointed out that the Russian offensive had already slowed in some directions. Ukrainian officials had previously noted that Ukrainian drones played a role in slowing the Russian advance to a walking pace.

Russian defense tactics

One Ukrainian drone operator shared in August 2024 that Russian troops were able to advance more successfully toward Pokrovsk by conducting ground attacks in small groups of two to four soldiers, sheltered by trees, which made them harder for Ukrainian drone operators to detect.

Further Ukrainian reports indicate that Russian forces began employing this tactic more widely in the Pokrovsk direction in September and October 2024. A Russian military blogger and former Storm-Z instructor noted on November 16 that these small infantry attacks are not the most effective tactic for advancing through rural settlements and fields near Selydove, where Russian forces have very limited coverage from Ukrainian drones.

The blogger suggested that Russian troops are only able to move reinforcements and supplies when Ukrainian drone operators are engaged elsewhere along the front. He also noted that ongoing problems possibly linked to Ukrainian drone operations or to the Russian military command’s insistence on conducting unnecessarily costly infantry attacks continue to impede the rapid advance of Russian forces along the front and prevent them from fully exploiting Ukraine’s personnel shortages.

The success of Ukrainian drone brigades

The ISW highlighted that Ukrainian drones have played a decisive role in thwarting Russian mechanized maneuvers along the entire front, especially during the early summer of 2024, when Ukrainian forces faced a critical shortage of artillery due to delays in Western defense assistance.

Successful strikes by Ukrainian drones against Russian armored vehicles in the Pokrovsk direction in June 2024 may have contributed to the Russian military command’s decision to limit mechanized attacks in this region.

"Ukrainian drone operations have also played an important role in repelling Russian mechanized assaults in the Kursk and Donetsk regions and near Kupiansk. Russian forces have attempted to innovate and deploy more effective drone protection systems for armored vehicles and tanks in recent months, but even the most 'successful' Russian mechanized assaults that have resulted in several kilometers of gains have generated significant armor losses due to Ukrainian drone strikes," the ISW stated.

Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to effectively strike Russian mechanized columns has prevented Russian forces from achieving large-scale breakthroughs or operations involving the use of drones.

Earlier, the ISW assessed that the Russian military command may be unable to cope with the current scale and pace of Russian equipment losses over the coming months and years. This is due to limitations in Russia's defense industrial production, reduced stocks of Soviet-era equipment, and the inability of Russian forces to achieve operationally significant territorial gains through mechanized maneuvers.

"Further improvements to Ukraine's drone capabilities and continually improving the integration of Ukrainian drones with ground operations remain critical to Ukraine's ability to defend against advancing Russian forces and liberate occupied territory in future counteroffensive operations," the ISW concluded.

Drone production in Ukraine

Since the start of the full-scale war with Russia, Ukraine has been ramping up the production of both aerial and ground-based strike drones, which have inflicted serious losses on Russian personnel, equipment, and infrastructure on Russian territory.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has developed four types of missiles that are currently being tested.

Earlier, the president noted that Ukraine can produce 4 million drones annually, and contracts have already been signed for 1.5 million UAVs.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to launch large-scale drone attacks on Ukraine nearly every night.

That night, Russian forces again launched strike drones towards Ukraine.

An air raid alert was issued in Kyiv, where air defense systems intercepted enemy targets.