Ukraine to face $800M export hit after EU free trade deal ends
Photo: NBU Deputy Head Serhiy Nikolaychuk (bank.gov.ua)
On June 6, 2025, the European Union will return to pre-Russian full-scale invasion trade conditions with Ukraine. This will cost exporters some losses, says National Bank of Ukraine Deputy Head Serhii Nikolaichuk.
"According to our estimates, net export losses, taking into account continued trade above quotas and reorientation to other countries' markets, will amount to about $800 million in June-December," he says.
According to Nikolaichuk, this effect is significant for the balance of payments and the foreign exchange market, while it is not critical and can be compensated for by certain monetary and exchange rate policy measures.
The NBU deputy head reminded that starting June 6, the EU will return trade with Ukraine under the terms of the Free Trade Agreement. This agreement provides for about 30 quotas. "If the supply is within these quotas, it will, of course, have a serious impact on exports," he says.
He reminds that certain quotas were already in place last year: for corn, eggs, sugar, oats, and poultry. "And the export of these goods was outside these quotas, which indicates that Ukrainian goods remain competitive in the EU market even with these quotas," Nikolaichuk says.
In addition, last year, thanks to the sea corridor, the supply of our food products to the markets of Asia and Africa resumed, and these processes continue and are even intensifying.
Free Trade Agreement canceled
On June 6, the trade visa-free regime between Ukraine and the EU, which allowed farmers to sell their products to Europe at high prices, will cease to be in effect.
Read more about this in RBC-Ukraine's article.
At the same time, prices for some food products in Ukraine are already higher than in Europe.
