Ukraine intelligence flags early signs of Russian banking crisis
The claimed resilience of Russia’s banking system is artificial (Photo: sputnik.by)
In 2025, Russia’s banking system lost key signs of resilience, despite reassuring statements from regulators. This indicates that a banking crisis is already underway, according to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.
Read also: Russia sinking into crisis as intelligence reports systemic economic collapse
Intelligence data indicate that last year, banks’ net profits fell by 8% relative to 2024, totaling $45 billion, while return on equity declined to 18%.
“The deterioration in financial results occurred against the background of a sharp increase in provisions and the rising cost of attracting resources caused by tight monetary policy. These indicators point not to a cyclical slowdown, but to the beginning of a deeper dysfunction in the sector,” the report states.
At the same time, the quality of the credit portfolio is deteriorating. In particular, the share of troubled loans has reached 11%, and 12% for unsecured loans. This level of defaults contradicts official assurances of stability and indicates systemic problems that can no longer be explained by individual segments or temporary shocks.
Moreover, even analysts from the Kremlin-linked Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting have effectively acknowledged the onset of a systemic banking crisis.
They concluded that the current apparent stability is not based on fundamental recovery, but on the dominance of state-owned banks, mass restructurings of troubled assets, and regulatory relaxations. This setup only delays the crisis while increasing the risk of a rapid, large-scale deposit outflow if the situation worsens.
In summary, Ukrainian intelligence explained that the claimed resilience of Russia’s banking system is artificial. The Central Bank of Russia has effectively moved to a manual risk-management regime, allowing toxic loans to be masked through formal restructurings.
“Under these circumstances, official data only mask the real scale of losses. The banking sector will inevitably require additional state support, which will increase fiscal and macroeconomic pressure on the rf’s economy and cement the crisis as a long-term factor,” the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service stated.
Problems in Russia’s economy
In June 2025, Bloomberg reported, citing expert assessments, that Russia’s banking system could collapse within a year, with a crisis already likely by April 2026.
Additionally, in November 2025, Russia experienced a collapse in confidence in long-term bank deposits. This was largely driven by concerns over the country’s unstable economy.
