Ukraine faces tough winter ahead, International Energy Agency says

According to IEA CEO Fatih Birol, the Ukrainian energy system, which has survived the previous two winters, will face the biggest challenges in energy security.

“Ukraine’s energy system has made it through the past two winters … But this winter will be, by far, its sternest test yet,” he said.

The agency also expressed concern about the situation in Moldova, where the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, scheduled for the end of 2024, poses significant risks to energy security.

The agency also proposed ten measures to restore Ukraine's energy infrastructure, but it does not specify which ones.

The IEA report says that in 2022 and 2023, “about half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity was either occupied by Russian forces, destroyed or damaged, and approximately half of the large network substations were damaged by missiles and drones.”

As Ukraine has lost more than two-thirds of its electricity generation capacity since the Russian invasion, the report warns of a “yawning gap between available electricity supply and peak demand.”

The authors of the report called on European countries to speed up the supply of equipment and parts to rebuild damaged facilities and protect them from drones.

Attacks on Ukraine's energy sector

Russia fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Ukrainian power generation, transmission, and distribution facilities since the invasion started. The first major wave of attacks occurred in the fall and winter of 2022, a few months after the start of the full-scale war. The attacks continued throughout the war, but since March, Russia has extremely intensified its attacks.

Each new wave left Ukrainian cities without electricity for several hours over several weeks.

According to a UN report, Ukrainians should expect power outages lasting from four to 18 hours a day this winter.