Ukraine faces extended power cuts and gas shortages this winter – Politico

As the article notes, every winter during the war was difficult for Ukraine, but the next season will come after many months of Russian air strikes on the country's energy infrastructure.

Schedules of power outages

Experts are already predicting blackout schedules that will leave people without electricity for most of the day.

According to Gennadii Riabtsev, chief researcher at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies and an energy market expert, at the end of August alone, Moscow fired more than 200 missiles and drones at the country's electricity facilities.

As a result, Ukraine's electricity generation capacity has been reduced by more than 9 gigawatts. This is eight power plants and more than 800 heat supply facilities, all of which are out of commission.

According to Riabtsev, the “most realistic scenario” that the country may face this winter involves limiting the supply of electricity to industry and households for 8-14 hours a day.

"Russian strikes will obviously continue, and nothing can guarantee the protection of the newly restored facilities from attacks … due to a lack of multilevel air and missile defense systems," he added.

Russia's massive air attacks have left Ukraine largely dependent on its nuclear infrastructure, which remains unprotected from missile attacks. And there is little time left to fix it.

According to Oleksandr Kharchenko, managing director at the Energy Industry Research Center and an adviser to Ukraine’s government on energy, in the worst-case scenario - if temperatures drop below minus 10 degrees and Moscow takes Ukraine's nuclear power plants offline - the country could face blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day.

Ukraine's allies shared еhis assessment, as Kyiv is turning to them for prompt assistance.

“We’re anticipating a … very harsh winter,” said an anonymous United States official. “People will die in their homes because Russia is taking out the energy infrastructure.”

Gas shortages

Last month, Ukraine appealed for help from the European Union, fearing that Russia would soon attack its nuclear infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned at the UN that such attacks could lead to a “nuclear catastrophe.”

The nuclear issue is more serious in part because Ukraine's other fuel reserves are dwindling. “The country's gas supplies may not be sufficient to meet demand this winter,” said Aura Sabadus, Aura Sabadus, an expert on Eastern European energy markets at the ICIS consultancy.

Kyiv is “uncertain” that it will meet its targets for filling gas storage facilities. This year, the situation has been exacerbated by the absence of Western traders and companies, which are “reluctant to inject gas in storage because of repeated Russian attacks and less attractive margins,” she added.

Weather

Another unpredictable factor is the weather. According to Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU’s Copernicus climate change service, there is no clear sign indicating how cold the coming months will be in the country. Yet, a cold snap is possible.

Ukraine went through September and October without any power outage schedules. Ukrenergo energy state company is preparing for several options. The worst-case scenario involves massive shelling of infrastructure, transmission networks, and generation facilities. In this case, the power will be cut off for up to 8 hours a day.