Ukraine experiences first break in Shahed drone strikes in 48 days - Expert's insights
Photo: For the first time in 48 days, night in Ukraine passed without any Shahed attacks (Getty Images)
For the first time in the past 48 hours, the night in Ukraine passed without Shahed drone attacks. This may indicate the successful strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on a drone storage facility near Yeysk, as well as the enemy's need to accumulate more drones.
More details - in RBC-Ukraine’s report below.
"Tonight, for the first time in 48 hours, Ukraine passed without Shahed drones," the Monitor Telegram channel, which tracks Russian aviation activity in the air, reported this morning.
Observers noted that the last time such an occurrence was seen this year was on August 29.
According to reports from the Ukrainian Air Force, the last recorded movement of attack drones in the air was in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions in the morning of October 13, around 06:23.
It's also worth noting that September 2024 became the first month with daily Shahed attacks.
Why the enemy paused: Possible reasons
Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies, told RBC-Ukraine that two factors could have caused the enemy to pause its use of Shaheds.
"The first factor is that Ukraine successfully struck one of the Shahed storage facilities in the village of Oktyabrskoye near Yeysk last week, which had a certain effect. The second is that Russia needs to pause to accumulate more drones before using them again," Musiienko explained.
He reminded that successful Ukrainian strikes had forced the Russians to reconsider their logistics, which led to this pause to reformat their supply routes and again reach a certain volume.
"Additionally, I believe October will indicate how long Russia can maintain the intensity of Shahed strikes as demonstrated in September. This will show how much stock the enemy has, how their production is holding up, and how quickly they can replenish these stocks," Musiienko added.
He says it's too early to suggest that this pause might be long-term. It does not mean the enemy has abandoned the tactic of launching Shaheds. These threats remain.
Russia may be preparing to produce Shaheds at another factory
"We must understand that these attacks may resume after some time. At the same time, Ukraine’s Defense Forces are constantly working to locate Shahed'storage sites for future strikes," Musiienko noted.
The expert also pointed out that this relates to the production of kamikaze drones by the aggressor. Some evidence suggests that Russia is preparing to expand Shahed production at another factory, possibly in Kabardino-Balkaria near the city of Nalchik.
"That’s why close surveillance is being conducted to target and destroy these facilities as soon as we have the opportunity. Comprehensive work is underway, and one of the top priorities now is reducing the likelihood of enemy missile and drone strikes or delaying them as much as possible," Musiienko concluded.
On the night of October 10, Ukrainian defense forces struck a Shahed storage facility in the Yeysk region of Russia. Afterward, several powerful explosions occurred, triggering a fire and further detonations at the drone storage site.
Later, satellite images showed the aftermath of the strike, revealing damage to warehouse buildings, including the destruction of one roof and traces of the fire.
Sources: the Ukrainian Air Force Telegram channel, the Monitor Group, and exclusive comments from Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies.
