Ukraine enters new phase of Crimea isolation, ISW says
Photo: Crimea's isolation reaches a new level (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
Ukraine’s campaign to isolate occupied Crimea has entered a new phase. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the primary target is now Russian ships supplying fuel to the peninsula by sea.
Ukraine’s strike on maritime fuel tankers signals a new phase in the campaign to isolate occupied Crimea. Analysts note that Ukraine has quickly adapted to Russia’s shift to maritime fuel transportation.
The reason for the change in tactics is land-based logistics. Continuous Ukrainian medium- and long-range strikes on land supply routes have disrupted logistics between Russia and occupied Crimea. This forced Russian troops to rely on maritime fuel deliveries to address the gasoline shortage on the peninsula.
What nighttime drone attack revealed
An attack on the night of July 8–9 confirmed this new phase of the campaign. Robert Brovdi, commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported a strike on 14 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov.
Among the targets struck were:
- 12 fuel tankers
- Tugboat Alfeo
- A dry cargo ship.
According to the commander, over the past 96 hours, Ukrainian drones have struck a total of 35 Russian fuel tankers, dry cargo ships, and specialized vessels.
Russian general admits powerlessness against Ukrainian drones
On July 6, Russian journalist Dmitry Kolezev revealed remarks by an active-duty Russian general. The general admitted that Russia is unable to counter Ukrainian medium-range strikes effectively.
The reason is a 2024 decision in which the Russian General Staff disbanded the Crimean Defense Group due to a lack of naval equipment to defend the peninsula.
ISW analysts believe that intensified attacks on maritime fuel tankers will continue to disrupt Russia’s ability to maintain logistics and transport fuel between Russia and occupied Crimea.
Fuel shortages in Russia and on the occupied peninsula have been mounting for several weeks.
According to analysts’ estimates, Ukrainian drones may have shut down up to 40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. The fuel crisis has affected about 50 million Russians.
The Kremlin has described the gasoline shortage in annexed Crimea as a temporary difficulty. Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has instructed the government to allocate subsidies to Crimea and Sevastopol due to rising fuel prices.
